Forum

Posts by "ashraf laidi"

4564 Posts Total by "ashraf laidi":
4417 Posts by member
Ashraf Laidi
(London, United Kingdom)
147 Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
9 years ago
Sep 18, 2008 3:15
Hi Harmonycptl, thanks for the comments. As a matter of fact, just yesterday I was at the FT conference warning them about further increases in the gold/oil ratio. I also wrote a 2 1/2 page article in this month's issue of FUTURES, where predicted gold to rise relative to oil and drag down the dollar. these are interesting times, but the conistently shortlived rallies in the market are a spectacular opprtunity to get back in on the short side (long CHF and JPY vs high yielders and USD). It is remarkable and a great opportunity. but careful from violent short term rallies in equities. we're breaching key technical levels.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
9 years ago
Sep 13, 2008 23:12
Hi Tan, rate cut tuesday is more of a major development than a "surprise". Not a big "surprise" because AFTER FRIDAY's RETAIL SALES, Fed funds futures were already pricing as much as a 30% chance of a Fed cut as early as MONDAY or TUESDAY. If a new announcement regarding Lehman comes out on Sunday or Monday, then that might help markets a bit, (drag down on yen) which may reduce need for easing. That could win the Fed some time, but in my view, the most LIKELY SCENARIOS:

1) 50 bps cut in DISCOUNT RATE CUT this week; OR,

2) 50 bps FED FUNDS cut between September and October meetings.

Stay tuned.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
9 years ago
Sep 13, 2008 2:38
Hi Hamish, the retail sales and PPI numbers were behind the intensification of the dollar decline. Have a look at the Intraday Thoughts right after the news. I mentioned in Wednesday's seminar that the Fed's next move is a rate cut and I sent CMC clients the chart showing a major trend line support in EURUSD at 1.3845. Here's what we said: "The chart below shows interim support stands at $1.3844, which is the 50% retracement of the rise from the 2006 low to the $1.6030 high. This level could also coincide with the $100 barrel mark in oil prices".

GBPUSD unlikely to follow above $1.80 which is HEAD in the Head&Shoulders (see chart sent on Monday).
JPY may come under pressure if Fed cuts rates this week, but overall, USDJPY unlikley to break above 108.50. 105 remains target.



Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
9 years ago
Sep 3, 2008 5:15
Hi Alex,

Shorting GBPCHF is still a great trade. Swiss economy is doing much better than the Eurozone, which makes CHF more attractive. i dont think SNB will cut rates any time soon. UK and GBP will continue to deteriorate as I had expected at the beginning of the year.

As for the next 6 months... any recovery in the global economy is likely to be more rewarding for CHF than GBP. But i expect global macro weakness and financial stress in the US to continue. Cable remains a great short with targets at 1.75 and 1.71 before year end. CHF may be best played against AUD and CAD.

Ashraf