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Posts by "daveo"

8683 Posts Total by "daveo":
8171 Posts by member
DaveO
(N.Cornwall, United Kingdom)
512 Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 26, 2012 1:12
In Thread: EUR
Skipper, eu a heller for EW, I would rather play with weekly/monthly counts----daily c'est impossibla mho. I really think we have to consider 50/100 pip trades good biz at mo. Taking the usdchf as a DX proxy for inverse correlation to eu I am still expecting that pair to visit 8660/20 before reversing back up to new high above 9592, thus the eu would have some more upside before turning back down with a vengeance. But my confidence is waning on the usdchf count with the same sideways drift we are seeing in the eu. Almost exact inverse pattern. Hope this makes sense and a glimpse into the tormented mind of an EW nutter :-) dat be da best I can do boss.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 21, 2012 1:00
Yes I think this would be the "3 line break" trend and exit range bar tool you are referring to. The charting can also display P&F or time candles if preferred.

Their range bars are "pure" unlike most other charting packages. I have their 6 page pdf explaining how they build range bars as apposed to how everyone else bastardises the correct method. I must say I am very pleased using their range bar charts specifically for forex and the indicators they have developed actually seem to work due to the smoothing effect. I have never been an indicator fan and as you know my pattern work is not ideal for paired assets.

Costs are relative to any additional gains as far as I am concerned and so far I think I am on the right side of that equation. Early days yet, only been with it for about a month. I should mention that the symbol menu only covers 19 pairs plus their special USDX but they are all the pairs I would consider monitoring and trading myself, more than enough for me.

I trade from the charts but also have the broker platform minimised in case of problems. The currenex broker platform is very low cpu demands. The currency strength charts gobble up the cpu more than 3 other charting progs I have open. The range bar charts are insignificant on cpu even with several workspaces stretched across multiple screens.

The 3 day trial is not long enough to digest everything and access to tutorials is restricted during the trial period. The company is split between software developer and educator/licensee.

Note to Ashraf, sorry we are at a tangent to your specific topic. I am not trying to promote this software, no financial interest whatsoever.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 11:50
Saka, Ashraf puts a lot of emphasis upon learning all about tech analysis, this is very important in addition to understanding the bond/yields/CDS correlations. Correlatons have been particularly scewed during the european financial crisis so understanding all the nuances in times of great stress is not at all easy. Even if and when the european crisis abates we can look forward to bond crises looming for Japan and the USA and UK. You need to combine technicals with the shorter term fundamentals. And then you need to allow for the markets often being irrational in misunderstanding news announcements, the real implications thereof. Charts reflect all of this in your rear view mirror so chart analysis is the starting point for managing your positions.

"Identifying when consolidations have ended"

I would point you to study Market Profile (auction market theory). This will show you how markets, all markets, behave. Consolidation is a period in which traders agree value. Agreeing value leads to dissagreement and vertical development. Vertical development leads to consolidation again (new value area) MP will provide you with the trading parameters on any timeframe you select.

Attempting to predict price action without the technical tools to manage your trading is a very dangerous game. No trader can fully digest all the news quickly or accurately enough to interpret the correct bias for trading. The news flow is totally dynamic and often misleading.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 16, 2012 23:26
In Thread: EUR
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-16/how-to-make-money-in-stocks-without-paying-taxes
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 8, 2012 19:13
In Thread: USD
Thx jacek, that link worked and Flast has his tend lines in the right places :-)

Flast, all one can say is that sometimes the MA's work for S&R and sometimes they do not work. Same applies to H&S patterns and all manner of analysis. Ultimately we develop a "feel" what is likely to work and what is likely to fail in any given mkt environment but even then we can get it wrong as often as we get it right. Trading is one of the most difficult challenges you could seek to confront. Its easy to put on a trade but not so easy to be in the top 2% of traders who reach "consistent" profitability. Lots of hard work and dedication is required. Blood, sweat and tears come first. This is my easter message to you hu hu.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LanCLS_hIo4
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 12:00
In Thread: USD
Flask, jacek is right, you shoudn't attach too much credence to moving averages. They are basically lagging indicators. I would suggest you change your 50 DMA to 55DMA and same for weekly as per Ashraf's recommendation for forex. MA's will only work for S&R if enough big money traders are using the same settings. You should value your price action work together with trend lines before MA's.

Your chart link did not work. If you want to post a chart you can use the stockcharts.com facility. Take a look at some of my daily charts athttp://chart.ly/vptbxio where you will see how my MA's are integrated with other studies.

Also keep an eye on charts posted in this group by the linesmen, Jacek, Subway and others. Sir Ignore has his own use of MA's which is very effective on the 1 hr and 4hr timeframes.

If my suggestions dissapoint you can ask our Catnip what he thinks :-) gl and gt.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 1:08
In Thread: EUR
Yes Dr Ben vindicated in his stance that jobs market still weak. His voice seems to have been lost this year with overly euphoric commentary from others in his team.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 6, 2012 0:46
In Thread: USD
Flast, one could have long discussions about MA's which basically reflect what price has already done. Using them for support and resistance we never know when they will be broken so you need to look for a confluence of MA's all lining up on say the weekly and daily timeframes. You can also use fibs and look for confluence of fibs and MA's to form powerful cluster of support or resistance. Add to this your horizontal pivot lines and trend lines to find as much confluence of several things all in a tight range.

Many traders will use the crossing of their 2 favourite MA's as an entry/exit signal. Using MA's alone is very simplistic and unlikely to have a high success record. Some traders will only trade in the direction of their MA slope combined with reading candles and price action. All these methods are valid, you have to find what works for you.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 22, 2012 15:28
In Thread: EUR
@skipper, the wind can change :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 19, 2012 11:47
In Thread: EUR
@jacek, yep and I tend to agree with cat when he said that Elliott never recommended his work to be applied to paired assets. EW has always been so subjective as to be dangerous for the vast majority of traders. I only utilise when I see a very clear pattern which offers tight trading parameters. The most common useful pattern for me is the simple corrective which occurs in all timeframes, all instruments, even in forex sometimes. Whenever I trade an EW pattern I am identifying two alternate scenarios which would invalidate my favoured count. This is why I seldom talk EW in a public forum because it leads to many potential misunderstandings and bashing the ole head against a brick wall :-)

The HFT has certainly helped to further cloud patterns but I would argue that EWT is all about human behaviour/emotions being the underlying structure of markets. The algos are designed by humans and believe it or not even resourceful bankers are half human. Your typical cheapy MT4 EA is designed by an idiot human but all mkts are comprised of both idiot and intelligent participants.

I am currently back researching currency strength charts once again, looking for more potential there for shorter term forex plays. Perhaps cat would like to comment on that.