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Posts by "dodger"

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122 Posts Total by "dodger":
102 Posts by member
Dodger
(London, United Kingdom)
20 Posts by Anonymous "dodger":
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Dodger
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 1, 2012 23:36
In Thread: GBP
Seeing sterling as moving towards overbought against USd with political headwinds in next weeks local elections,think its the liberals that are really going to get a kicking and of course the conservatives on the return to technical recession.The spectre may soon start to loom of the next government being a triple or possibly multiple coalition with no party having a workable majority???Looking to short any rally to 1.6300 this week and if it fails there I will double up looking for break below 1.6150 and beyond ???
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
12 years ago
Nov 25, 2011 17:42
In Thread: EUR
Got to be said,once upon a time I looked at the european union and the single currency as something of a progressive and enlightened development,that would bring forward a bright future for not only europe but as a beacon for the future cooperation of mankind.OK,I knew there were problems both political and ecconomic that I thought could be worked out but instead the whole project politically ,don"t even think about ecconomically, seems to have gone the way of that other great european institution born in the sixties,"the eurovision song contest",which no-one has really taken seriously for years!
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
12 years ago
Oct 31, 2011 1:54
In Thread: JPY
Bang!!in they go,how far up are the yen crosses going,have been in already out
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
12 years ago
Oct 31, 2011 1:51
In Thread: EUR
Very heavy japanese intervention just after HK open,risk up in yen crosses but dollar stronger against euro and sterling.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Feb 1, 2011 11:40
In Thread: GBP
Gunjack ,what I have been saying all week ,its nothing to do with uk ecconomy its inflation of commodities internationally.Uk has to import not only for its self but also for "manufacturers" to re export,the metals etc, that it has to import.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Feb 1, 2011 11:19
In Thread: GBP
PS. Would also buy if 1.580 to 1.6 shows up as strong support.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Feb 1, 2011 11:15
In Thread: EUR
Chinese new year coming up and everyone off on holiday in the PRC.Have"nt checked the bond auction calendar but if there is any trouble in "less well healed" of the euro countries don"t expect Beijing to answer the telephone.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Feb 1, 2011 11:09
In Thread: GBP
Cable (GBP/US) jumped over 1.6100 on release of manufacturing PMI showing growing inflation and increasing probability of an early rate rise,middle east situation adding to crude prices.Politically and socially uk may not be ready for a rate rise but increasing international inflation is forcing their hand.If cable can stay above 1.6 res/now support could go to 1.63 ???However already taken profit before weekend on two thirds of positions taken last tuesday ,stops moved up to 1.5900 on remaining long term positions.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Jan 26, 2011 11:37
In Thread: GBP
Funny how history tends to repeat,Geoffrey Howe produced a budget in 1981 that was somewhat controversal because it focused on reducing the deficit and was against further stimulation of the ecconomy in what were seen as tough ecconomic times.A letter was sent to the Times signed by 364 economists from the world of accademia critical of his policies that many now believe are credited with rejuvenating the british ecconmoy and laid the foundations of a period of unprecedented prosperity.One of the 364 signatories was ...Mervyn King ..then I think at the time a professor at Birmingham university.My neck is still out,Mervyn King has been wrong before in similar circumstances and has a reputation for sometimes voting in the minority on the monetary policy commitee.Better ecconomic figures later in the year and chinas continued export of inflationary pressures will see him out voted again.In yesterdays figures,the increase in uk manufacturing was not bad,of course transport,construction,and retail were all down but it was hardly surprising given december weather.There was quite a lot of construction activity starting up in london before the snow,several large projects,that are now behind and racheting things up to make up for the delay during the bad weather.Personally looking for pound to establish good technical support and begin taking positions there in preparation for better GDP figures being released in the spring against a back drop of rising inflation.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
13 years ago
Jan 25, 2011 16:49
In Thread: GBP
Going to stick my neck out here on interest rates,first todays uk GDP was no surprise given the "frozen" state of ecconomy in december due to weather,things should be much better going into spring if not before especially if the"royal wedding"is the tourism and retail stimulus some claim it will be.Second if prices of commodities follw their projections higher "especially oil and basic foods" there may be a dire need for some action on interest rates to counteract its effects by boosting pound against dollar and making imports cheaper???Stability is sometimes preferable to growth,people just got used to growth,year in ,year out,and think its going to re-appear as pre-2007,interest rates may need to go up first(not only in UK) to attract money back into western banks and out of commodities and "emerging" ecconomies,then they will be able to start lending to business and individuals with sound fundamentals.Still think BOE will make two rises this year,which they may be forced into by fundamentals beyond UK domestic considerations.
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