EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
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EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
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Silver 26.23 |
Of Gold Extensions مقياس إمتدادات الذهب
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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You may have already heard of stock indices such as the FTSE 100, the Dow Jones or the Nikkei 225. Numbers often quoted on the news, or in the business section of the newspaper, usually alongside a value saying how much they've moved up or down.
But what are they? And what do they represent?
A stock index is a measurement of value of a certain section of the stock market.
This 'certain section of the stock market' can be:
one
An exchange (like the Tokyo Stock Exchange or NASDAQ)
two
A region (such as Europe or Asia)
three
Or a sector (energy, electronics, property, etc)
The FTSE 100 for example, is a number representing the largest 100 companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.
FTSE 100
If, on average, the share price of these companies goes up, then the FTSE 100 will rise with them. And if the share prices fall, it will drop.
Why are they important?
Stock indices give traders and investors an indication of how an exchange, region or sector is performing.
The ASX 200 for example, tracks the performance of 200 of the largest companies in Australia. If the ASX 200 starts to rise, then on average these companies are performing well. A rising ASX 200 tells investors that, generally, the state of the Australian stock market is improving.
ASX 200
And if the Australian stock market is on the up, then more often than not, the entire Aussie economy tends to be doing well. So, movements in the price of major stock indices can often give traders an indication as to the health of an entire country.
That's important information when planning your next trade.
What are the major stock indices?
Most nations have one major stock index that represents the largest companies in that country. For example:
FTSE 100 UK
DAX Germany
CAC 40 France
IBEX 35 Spain
FTSE MIB Italy
Nikkei 225 Japan
Hang Seng Hong Kong
ASX 200 Australia
TSX 60 Canada
However, in the US there are several major indices, all based on slightly different sections of the market. The three main US indices are:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
DJIA
One of the oldest and most quoted indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average represents 30 of the most influential companies in the US. It was first calculated in 1896 and historically was made up of firms involved in heavy industry. Nowadays this association has been all but lost.
S&P 500
SP 500
More diverse than DJIA, the S&P 500 is based on the value of 500 of the largest US shares listed on either the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ. It was first used in its current form in the 1950s and today represents around 70% of the total value the US stock market.
NASDAQ-100
Nasdaq
Established in 1985, the NASDAQ 100 is based on 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange in New York City. It represents firms across a number of sectors, but in particular computing, telecommunications and biotechnology.
Lesson summary
A stock index is a measurement of value of a certain section of the stock market
Major stock indices can give an indication as to the health of the equity market (and sometimes the economy) of a particular country or region
Most nations have one major index. The US has three: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100
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What are stock indices?
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.
While though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.
Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.
Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.
The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.
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The Head and Shoulders Bottom, sometimes referred to as an Inverse Head and Shoulders, is a reversal pattern that shares many common characteristics with the Head and Shoulders Top, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.
As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, with its completion marking a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.
The price action that forms the Head and Shoulders Bottom is roughly the same as that which forms the Head and Shoulders Top, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom. We will look at each part of the pattern individually, keeping volume in mind, and then put the parts together with some examples.
Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior downtrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior downtrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom formation.
Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete the formation of the left shoulder (1). The high of the decline usually remains below any longer trend line, thus keeping the downtrend intact.
Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance forms the second point of the neckline (2). The high of the advance sometimes breaks a downtrend line, which calls into question the robustness of the downtrend.
Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than a downward slope.
Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume, the validity of any breakout becomes suspect. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing the absolute levels associated with each peak and trough.
Volume levels during the first half of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low, subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for expansion during the advances.
The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings, e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.
Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete (and the downtrend is not reversed) until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders Bottom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.
Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same resistance
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Head and Shoulders Bottom
Rectangle pattern
A Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is easily identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. The highs and lows can be connected to form two parallel lines that make up the top and bottom of a rectangle. Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges, consolidation zones or congestion areas.
There are many similarities between the rectangle and the symmetrical triangle. While both are usually continuation patterns, they can also mark trend significant tops and bottoms. As with the symmetrical triangle, the rectangle pattern is not complete until a breakout has occurred. Sometimes clues can be found, but the direction of the breakout is usually not determinable beforehand. We will examine each part of the rectangle and then provide an example with MU.
Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation.
Four (4) Points: At least two equivalent reaction highs are required to form the upper resistance line and two equivalent reaction lows to form the lower support line. They do not have to be exactly equal, but should be within a reasonable proximity. Although not a prerequisite, it is preferable that the highs and lows alternate.
Volume: As opposed to the symmetrical triangle, rectangles do not exhibit standard volume patterns. Sometimes volume will decline as the pattern develops. Other times, volume will gyrate as the prices bounce between support and resistance. Volume will rarely increase as the pattern matures. If volume declines, it is best to look for an expansion on the breakout for confirmation. If volume gyrates, it is best to assess which movements (advances to resistance or declines to support) are receiving the most volume. This type of volume assessment could offer an indication on the direction of the future breakout.
Duration: Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. A 3-month pattern might be expected to fulfill its breakout projection. However, a 6-month pattern might be expected to exceed its breakout target.
Breakout Direction: The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. As with the symmetrical triangle, rectangles are neutral patterns that are dependent on the direction of the future breakout. Volume patterns can sometimes offer clues, but there is no confirmation until an actual break above resistance or break below support.
Breakout Confirmation: For a breakout to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a filter to price (3%), time (3 days) or volume (expansion) for confirmation.
Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into potential resistance and vice versa. After a break above resistance (below support), there is sometimes a return to test this newfound support level (resistance level). (For more detail, see our ChartSchool article on support and resistance.) A return to or near the original breakout level can offer a second chance to participate.
Target: The estimated move is found by measuring the height of the rectangle and applying it to the breakout.
Rectangles represent a trading range that pits the bulls against the bears. As the price nears support, buyers step in and push the price higher. As the price nears resistance, bears take over and force the price lower. Nimble traders sometimes play these bounces by buying near support and selling near resistance. One group (bulls or bears) will exhaust itself and a winner will emerge when there is a breakout. Again, it is important to remember that rectangles have a neutral bias. Even though clues can sometimes be gleaned from volume patterns, the actual price action depicts a market in conflict. Only until the price breaks above resistance or below support will it be clear which group has won the battle.
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The Double Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between.
Note that a Double Top Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from a Double Top Breakout on a P&F chart. Namely, Double Top Breakouts on P&F charts are bullish patterns that mark an upside resistance breakout.
Gillette Co. (G) Double Top Reversal example chart from StockCharts.com
Although there can be variations, the classic Double Top Reversal marks at least an intermediate-term, if not long-term, change in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential Double Top Reversals can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. For clarification, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place.
First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time.
Trough: After the first peak, there is generally a decline of 10-20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand.
Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a Double Top Reversal exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually, a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate.
Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent.
Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the Double Top Reversal and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the Double Top Reversal. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent.
Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short.
Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.
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Double Top Reversal
Ultimate Oscillator
Interpretation
Buying Pressure and its relationship to the True Range forms the base for the Ultimate Oscillator. Williams believes that the best way to measure Buying Pressure is simply subtracting the Close from the Low or the Prior Close, whichever of the two is the lowest. This will reflect the true magnitude of the advance, and hence, buying pressure. The Ultimate Oscillator rises when Buying Pressure is strong and falls when Buying Pressure is weak.
The Ultimate Oscillator measures momentum for three distinct timeframes. Notice that the second timeframe is double that of the first, and the third timeframe is double that of the second. Even though the shortest timeframe carries the most weight, the longest timeframe is not ignored, which should reduce the number of false divergences. This is important because the basic buy signal is based on a bullish divergence and the basic sell signal is based on a bearish divergence.
Buy Signal
There are three steps to a buy signal. First, a bullish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a higher low as price forges a lower low. The higher low in the oscillator shows less downside momentum. Second, the low of the bullish divergence should be below 30. This is to ensure that prices are somewhat oversold or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator rises above the high of the bullish divergence.
Sell Signal
There are three steps to a sell signal. First, a bearish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a lower high as price forges a higher high. The lower high in the oscillator shows less upside momentum. Second, the high of the bearish divergence should be above 70. This is to ensure that prices are somewhat overbought or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator falls below the low of the bearish divergence to confirm a reversal.
Conclusion
The Ultimate Oscillator is a momentum oscillator that incorporates three different timeframes. Traditional signals are derived from bullish and bearish divergence, but chartists can also look at actual levels for a trading bias. This usually works better with longer parameters and longer trends. For example, the Ultimate Oscillator (20,40,80) and price trend favors the bulls when above 50 and the bears when below 50. As with all indicators, the Ultimate Oscillator should not be used alone. Complementary indicators, chart patterns and other analysis tools should be employed to confirm signals.
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Developed by Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman, the Vortex Indicator consists of two oscillators that capture positive and negative trend movement. In creating this indicator, Botes and Seipman drew on the work of Welles Wilder and Viktor Schauberger, who is considered the father of implosion technology. Despite a rather involved formula, the indicator is quite easy to interpret. A bullish signal triggers when the positive trend indicator crosses above the negative trend indicator or a key level. A bearish signal triggers when the negative trend indicator crosses above the positive trend indicator or a key level. The Vortex Indicator is either above or below these levels, which means it always has a clear bullish or bearish bias.
Interpretation
The Vortex Indicator (VTX) can be used to identify the start of a trend and subsequently affirm trend direction. First, a simple cross of the two oscillators can be used to signal the start of a trend. After this crossover, the trend is up when +VI is above -VI and down when -VI is greater than +VI. Second, a cross above or below a particular level can signal the start of a trend and these levels can be used to affirm trend direction.
Conclusion
The Vortex Indicator is a unique directional indicator that provides clear signals and defines the overall trend. As with all technical analysis tools and indicators, the Vortex Indicator can be used on a range of securities and across various timeframes. For example, VTX can be applied to weekly and monthly charts to define the bigger trend and then applied to daily charts to generate signals within that trend. Using the daily chart, chartists could focus exclusively on bullish signals when VTX on the weekly chart indicates an uptrend. Conversely, chartists can focus on bearish signals when VTX on the daily chart is in bear mode.
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Vortex Indicator
Introduction of Williams %R
Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum indicator that is the inverse of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator. Also referred to as %R, Williams %R reflects the level of the close relative to the highest high for the look-back period. In contrast, the Stochastic Oscillator reflects the level of the close relative to the lowest low. %R corrects for the inversion by multiplying the raw value by -100. As a result, the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R produce the exact same lines, but with different scaling. Williams %R oscillates from 0 to -100; readings from 0 to -20 are considered overbought, while readings from -80 to -100 are considered oversold. Unsurprisingly, signals derived from the Stochastic Oscillator are also applicable to Williams %R.
Conclusion
Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures the level of the close relative to the high-low range over a given period of time. In addition to the signals mentioned above, chartists can use %R to gauge the six-month trend for a security. 125-day %R covers around 6 months. Prices are above their 6-month average when %R is above -50, which is consistent with an uptrend. Readings below -50 are consistent with a downtrend. In this regard, %R can be used to help define the bigger trend (six months). Like all technical indicators, it is important to use the Williams %R in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Volume, chart patterns and breakouts can be used to confirm or refute signals produced by Williams %R.
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Introduction of Williams %R
Introduction
Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. According to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.
RSI is an extremely popular momentum indicator that has been featured in a number of articles, interviews and books over the years. In particular, Constance Brown's book, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, features the concept of bull market and bear market ranges for RSI. Andrew Cardwell, Brown's RSI mentor, introduced positive and negative reversals for RSI and, additionally, turned the notion of divergence, literally and figuratively, on its head.
Wilder features RSI in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. This book also includes the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range and the Directional Movement Concept (ADX). Despite being developed before the computer age, Wilder's indicators have stood the test of time and remain extremely popular.
Conclusion
RSI is a versatile momentum oscillator that has stood the test of time. Despite changes in volatility and the markets over the years, RSI remains as relevant now as it was in Wilder's days. While Wilder's original interpretations are useful to understanding the indicator, the work of Brown and Cardwell takes RSI interpretation to a new level. Adjusting to this level takes some rethinking on the part of the traditionally schooled chartists. Wilder considers overbought conditions ripe for a reversal, but overbought can also be a sign of strength. Bearish divergences still produce some good sell signals, but chartists must be careful in strong trends when bearish divergences are actually normal. Even though the concept of positive and negative reversals may seem to undermine Wilder's interpretation, the logic makes sense and Wilder would hardly dismiss the value of putting more emphasis on price action. Positive and negative reversals put price action of the underlying security first and the indicator second, which is the way it should be. Bearish and bullish divergences place the indicator first and price action second. By putting more emphasis on price action, the concept of positive and negative reversals challenges our thinking towards momentum oscillators.
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Uptrend and forex trading signals
The chart below shows Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) starting an uptrend as the Keltner Channels turn up and the stock surges above the upper channel line. ADM was in a clear downtrend in April-May as prices continued to pierce the lower channel. With a strong thrust up in June, prices exceeded the upper channel and the channel turned up to start a new uptrend. Notice that prices held above the lower channel on dips in early and late July.
Even with a new uptrend established, it is often prudent to wait for a pullback or better entry point to improve the reward-to-risk ratio. Momentum oscillators or other indicators can then be employed to define oversold readings. This chart shows StochRSI, one of the more sensitive momentum oscillators, dipping below .20 to become oversold at least three times during the uptrend. The subsequent crosses back above .20 signaled a resumption of the uptrend.
Downtrend and free forex signals
The second chart shows Nvidia (NVDA) starting a downtrend with a sharp decline below the lower channel line. After this initial break, the stock met resistance near the 20-day EMA (middle line) from mid-May until early August. The inability to even come close to the upper channel line showed strong downside pressure.
A 10-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown as the momentum oscillator to identify short-term overbought conditions. A move above 100 is considered overbought. A subsequent move back below 100 signals a resumption of the downtrend. This signal worked well until September. These failed signals indicated a possible trend change that was subsequently confirmed with a break above the upper channel line.
free forex signals and Flat Trend
Once a trading range or flat trading environment has been identified, traders can use the Keltner Channels free forex signals to identify overbought and oversold levels. A trading range can be identified with a flat moving average and the Average Directional Index (ADX). The chart below shows IBM fluctuating between support in the 120-122 area and resistance in the 130-132 area from February to late September. The 20-day EMA, middle line, lagged price action, but flattened out from April to September.
The indicator window shows ADX (black line) confirming a weak trend. Low and falling ADX shows a weak trend. High and rising ADX shows a strong trend. ADX was below 40 the entire time and below 30 most of the time. This reflects the absence of a trend. Also, notice that ADX peaked in early June and fell until late August.
Armed with the prospects of a weak trend and trading range, traders can use Keltner Channels to anticipate reversals. In addition, notice that the channel lines often coincide with chart support and resistance. IBM dipped below the lower channel line three times from late May until late August. These dips provided low-risk entry points. The stock did not manage to reach the upper channel line, but did get close as it reversed in the resistance zone. The Disney chart shows a similar situation.
Keltner Channels are a trend following indicator designed to identify the underlying trend.Trend identification is more than half the battle. The trend can be up, down or flat. Using the methods described above, traders and investors can identify the trend to establish a trading preference. Bullish free forex signals are favored in an uptrend and bearish trades are favored in a downtrend. A flat trend requires a more nimble approach because prices often peak at the upper channel line and trough at the lower channel line. As with all analysis techniques, Keltner Channels should be used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis. Momentum indicators offer a good complement to the trend-following Keltner Channels. https://www.freeforex-signals.com/