Been out on vacation - missed all the latest action.
I lisened intently to latest Bernanke speach and although there is no mention of immediate cuts to the discount rate, but he did say that potential downside risks appear worse and the Fed is ready to resond if these risks actually materialize, which seems to signal a rate cut in the near future.
Do you think that the marketplace has already priced in this potential cut, and continued deleveraging will override any actual rate cut(s)?
I might go long on a very small lot with tight stops. If the 107.3 mark can be broken there is no resistance to 122 which would form a classic double top.
Still placing main focus on GBP/USD ready to short - hard resistance is being encountered at 1.863/64 range possible reversal beginning with shooting star formation on 240 minute chart
Have you recently traded the CAD/JPYcross? It is currently in consolidation of recent bullish trend and at the low range of yesterdays highs. Also sensitive to the volatility of Oil.
Thinking of going long if there is a dip to 101.60 - 101.70 range.
Any effect on the GBP from rising Oil? Nat Gas is still relatively unchanged vs. Oil and GBP is a high prodcer of Oil, and Cosumer of Nat Gas.
Also, will the U.S political climate further drag on the Dollar - Taliban/Pakistani Army Terror upswing in Pakistan, Electoral discomfort and Lame Duck CEO at Home?
240 Minute Chart shows potential Evening Star - Tweezer top foming at new highs, potential reversal formaing.
Fundamentals are still suporting a bullish sentiment on GBP/USD: Carry and Bond trades, combined with expectations of Fed easing and possible commidity inflationary pressures.
The Fed and Treasurey is basically caught in a vice between maintaining capital inflows (Treasury sales pricing) and maintaining credit markets through easing. Foreign investment is viewing US Treasuries as relatively more risky leading to demand for better pricing on Yields. At the same time LIBOR rates are climbing, inducing credit disruption in the commercial markets.
Technicals show that GBP/USD could reach as high as 1.87 (2 day old highs), before Bear correction, a break below 1.84 would indicate possible shifting sentiment. However sentiment is very Bearish on the USD so caution is advised.Given the record incease in WTI today, I think that Ashraf's advice on Gold is sound.
Steve - It looks like investors are regaining risk appettite in response to the bailout and using the dollar on the short end of the carry trade against higher yielding currencies as expectations are for further rate cuts which would lead to even larger profits for the carry traders. Oil has been bullish again which further hammers the dollar as demand for oil is reduced (I believe Oil demand has become more elastic at current price levels).
Watch for Gold to rise the next 2-4 weeks (see Ashrafs comments below)
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(9 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(9 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(9 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (9 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (9 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (9 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(9 months ago)
Gold, Bitcoin, USD Combo
I mentioned last week on here on how and why both gold and USD are falling together. Since then, the trend accelerated alongside another detail.
View Hot-Chart..
Jason
Thanks - as usual your insight is appreciated!
If there is no pre meeting cut, where do you see teh USD/JPY bottoming?
Jason
Been out on vacation - missed all the latest action.
I lisened intently to latest Bernanke speach and although there is no mention of immediate cuts to the discount rate, but he did say that potential downside risks appear worse and the Fed is ready to resond if these risks actually materialize, which seems to signal a rate cut in the near future.
Do you think that the marketplace has already priced in this potential cut, and continued deleveraging will override any actual rate cut(s)?
I might go long on a very small lot with tight stops. If the 107.3 mark can be broken there is no resistance to 122 which would form a classic double top.
Still placing main focus on GBP/USD ready to short - hard resistance is being encountered at 1.863/64 range possible reversal beginning with shooting star formation on 240 minute chart
Have you recently traded the CAD/JPYcross? It is currently in consolidation of recent bullish trend and at the low range of yesterdays highs. Also sensitive to the volatility of Oil.
Thinking of going long if there is a dip to 101.60 - 101.70 range.
Any effect on the GBP from rising Oil?
Nat Gas is still relatively unchanged vs. Oil and GBP is a high prodcer of Oil, and Cosumer of Nat Gas.
Also, will the U.S political climate further drag on the Dollar - Taliban/Pakistani Army Terror upswing in Pakistan, Electoral discomfort and Lame Duck CEO at Home?
240 Minute Chart shows potential Evening Star - Tweezer top foming at new highs, potential reversal formaing.
Fundamentals are still suporting a bullish sentiment on GBP/USD: Carry and Bond trades, combined with expectations of Fed easing and possible commidity inflationary pressures.
The Fed and Treasurey is basically caught in a vice between maintaining capital inflows (Treasury sales pricing) and maintaining credit markets through easing.
Foreign investment is viewing US Treasuries as relatively more risky leading to demand for better pricing on Yields. At the same time LIBOR rates are climbing, inducing credit disruption in the commercial markets.
Technicals show that GBP/USD could reach as high as 1.87 (2 day old highs), before Bear correction, a break below 1.84 would indicate possible shifting sentiment. However sentiment is very Bearish on the USD so caution is advised.Given the record incease in WTI today, I think that Ashraf's advice on Gold is sound.
Sounds right enough to me - I entered Gold long at 757 on Ashraf's review of the Gold/Oil ratio, it is now at 897.
As a former Economics Doctoral student I enjoy disscussing the nature of the markets - money seems to be a nice reward for the effort!!!
Watch for Gold to rise the next 2-4 weeks (see Ashrafs comments below)