EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
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As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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- go long euro guys
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Shorts on Euro beware
Consider that there is no "Big Bang" that cause this Euro move.
No trillion dollar bailout, no rescue package, no intervention by the FEDs or the ECB to speak of.
that makes it, in my view, all the mote interesting.
The driver is US job numbers and review of growth expectations for the US
There is no doubt about Europe - all it takes is one populist government in the Eurozone to say we want OUT.
However, the US dollar has been rising solely on the basis of growth expectations - Me and my money want to be in the US since the growth is there - but no growth in GDP AND no growth in jobs AND regining in the deficit as well - thats the recipe that readily invites the Bernanke led FED to consider technical monetary easing via increasing its balance sheet - this is very much Japan in the mid nineties
I would ask another one - is it a technical move in the Dollar or a fundamental move?
Lets who can answer that one?
US GDP expectations of 3%+ in 2nd half are crashing down.
If the US also comes up with sub 1% GDP growth, then whats the difference between Eurozone and the US?
This is the turning point for the Dollar - fasten your seat belts
A fiscal stimulus is key for the faltering US economy and this is not going to happen due to the US political scene. With a fallling stock market and faltering employment figures, the US consumer along with the firms will cut back resulting in a sharp drop in consumption.
Only way out is a fiscal or monetary stimulus. Get ready for the Bernanke printing machine and a sharp drop in the Dollar and the equities.
This is a classic out of 2008.
Europe and the rest of the world were rebuking the US policy makers for its recession and "deleveraging" was in. Come 2010 and every thought that trashing Greece and Europe is great while the US and China can sail away. But the correction in the Euro has been a prelude to what was coming for the rest of the world. Everone is connected and growth cannot take place in isolation.
The only out of this is by printing money - and the US, Japan will take the lead. Since these central banks and their citizen are most used to printing money.
EURUSD turned around Dec 4th, when US payroll data for November turned positive.
As the Greek debacle unfolded, eurozone growth expectations evaporated while the US growth for 2010 was expected 3-4%. Clearly, the US was donig something right, the europeons were doomed and all hell broke loose with the euro fighting for its life
Technicals had a a field day - moving averages and dead crosses all abound.
Somewhere in mid summer, a calm arose out of the eurozone - the main news being no news
But on the other side of the atlantic, a storm was brewing.
BP's oil spill was a pshychological hit to the american confidence. Neither Obama nor the american economy is invincible. you can print a lot of money but you cannot fix everything. it will take the time it will take.
Looks like Obama and the democrats r going to loose big time in the fall election so the congress and the president will be in a stalemate zone for the next couple of years.
The 3+ growth in the US is coming off as the stimulus is wearing down. It is time for the next tax cuts and fiscal stimulus - but this WILL not be done due to the looming elections.
Without a new stimulus package, the 3% will go down to 1% by the end of this year and a double dip scenario may emerge. In the absence of a fiscal stimulus, the Fed will step in and buy treasuries.
The key question has been - when the stimulus ends will the US business and consumers be drivers of strong growth?
In my view, there have been permanent job losses in the US and there r no emerging new sectors for job growth resulting in overall high unemployment for many years to come.
US hopes that china would allow its currency to appreciate ultimately allowing the US economy to live off the chinease - just like the Chinease r donig right now. But this might be good for US companies but there is little chance that this will benefit the middle and working classes in the US.
What US needs is a depreciation of the US dollar
This would be great if the US growth story sustains and the rest of the world keeps lending it ar 3% indefinately for as much as the US wants to borrow. This is workable in the unique situation of the US.
However, note that the republicans and the general public is heavily in favor of deficit reduction and without more spending the stagnation will arrive for the US market.
The Euro is doomed - but the Dollar is now stepping into a very dangerous territory.
Early in 2008, best bet was buying the obama mania six months before the US election. Now, in my view, the best bet is get out of the dollar's way - a train wreck is coming.
what do u think would be the situation day after the Euro breaksdown?
Would the eurozone / french, german central banks etc bring out their new currency on day 1? what would be the conversion rate? and with the recent gyrations, the governments must have planned a Plan B in place of the Euro - how would that go?
growth in US is fake. there r no growth drivers and its not long before the treasury will run out of stimulus packages. at some point of time, the fed will step in and buy the treasuries and bring the dollar down. will this take a year or five years - thats open.
for the long haul, i wd be happy to hold the canadian and the aussie. for now, euro is as bad as it gets but i wd rather keep it than risk a dollar run.
at the same time, i do think of what rate the Deutchemark would the converted to the Eoro, if and when, Merkel and Sarko throw in the towel. Most reserve euros would be looking to be converted to the Mark than the Pasetta, for example, moving the Mark up and the rest of the currencies down.
US growth of 3-4% is supported by the massive stimulus package of 2009. Minus this stimulus, and US and Eurozone have same growth levels of below 1%. I checked recovery.gov to see how much of the stimulus money is left and it looks like half of it is spend while the other half is still there implying that stimulus support for the US economy will remain till early 2011. So, the US growth rate of 3%+ should stay till Q1 2011 and by that time the private sector may pick up some slack.
The US and Eurozone - ala Germany are going in two separate directions. The US does not want the 30s and is injecting masive stimulus to revive growth in the meanwhile taking huge debt. At the same time, the Germans are actually trying to balance their budget and cut any amount of deficit and forcing other Eurozone countries in this direction.
Is the below 1% growth and budget cuts a more pragmatic approach or is the US style debt based growth of 3% more practical? It remains to be seen whether the US economy will eventually recover minus the stimulus or the German and IMF style budget cuts and stagnation will lead to improvement.
What the Germans target is price stability. The old generation does not want to loose its savings and it hates inflation. What the US targets is growth and inflation that leads to expansion locally and globally.
Bond holders have played a key role in forcing PIGS to cut their deficits. However, if Germans and the ECB were more flexible, the Greek situation would not have deteriorated so much. This clearly shows Europeon reluctance for any long term cohesion in fiscal policies.
On the other side, how long will the Bond investors keep buying the US treasuries? Minus the fear factor and available options in BRICs etc, would these investments shrink resulting in increase of yields and fall of the Dollar?
As long as the US 3%+ growth exsits, it appears that the apetite for US paper will survive and dollar will continue to rise. I think the next milestone is what happens when the stimulus ends - summer of 2011.
For the Eurozone, 20% devaluation on the Euro has already arrived. At par to Dollar, the Eurozone will be pretty competitive. So, maybe thats what the Germans are getting at - not taking debt but with currency devaluation by markets, a regain of competitive edge. Thats a long, hard road to take but it allows for more flexibility down the road.
Meanwhile, the US beleives it can avoid the fate of the Japanease and the 2nd stimulus will not be needed. I think thats a mistake. There is a permanent loss of jobs to the Indian and Chinease and the US can only get out of this with a weak dollar and change in its market structures.
Why is the US growth 3-4% and Eurozone below 1%?
Do u think it is due to the large fiscal stimulus in the US? At some point, this fiscal stimulus will end (by end of summer), and if the economy and the consumer has not picked up enough, should this not lead to 1% growth for the US?
The Eurozone is forced to cut budget deficits due to rising yields. The US for the time being is getting 3.3% for 10 Year and ample financing. If it stays like this, then come end of summer, US economy should slow down and a 2nd fiscal stimulus would be needed which, it appears, the US can afford unlike the EU.
So, my end of the year scenario and going into 2011 would be US slowing down, enter stimulus, increase in deficit spending, but overall US moving into 2011 with 3+% GDP for next year. Meanwhile, eurozone and Euro should linger lower into 2011 and 2012 with more political turmoil.
I would like to know what you think is driving US growth - if it is not the diminishing stimulus and if this can continue without a new package going into election time by Fall
jamshed
VOTE:At least 3 Nations to Exit
After the Greece crisis, I have realized that the problems in Eurozone are far more complex than I understood earlier. German public does not want to take on anyone else's debt. Meanwhile, the Greeks are not going to accept cuts in their salaries and pensions. So, if there is a referendum in Greece, people would vote out of the Euro and if there is another referendum in Germany over the Greek rescue package, Merkel will be kicked out of the government.
The only reason the Greek rescue has survived is due to Governments taking unpopular measures.
At some point, this is going to bit back the Governments in Germany, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. It will take only one collapse of a Goverment to stress the Eurozone to the same and bigger magnitude as was seen recently.
The other option is that while Euro waits for its fate to unfold, global economy starts to take off and pulls the Eurozone towards 1-2% growth that eventually allows some knid of positive feeling and contains the crisis.
Germans only want one thing - price stability and no debts --> German parliament is passing laws to target have Zero deficits in the next few years. With 400 euro minimum salary and working age of 67 and a powerhouse of an economy with 160 billion euro trade surplus every year, there is 0 chance for Italy or Greece or Spain to be competitive with the Germans.
So, in my view, changed recently, it is in the best interests of the Club Med and the Eastern Europeons to jump out of the Eurozone. France and Holland may stick with Germans but other countries are better off with a weaker curency and more tolerable deficits.
After the Greece crisis, I have realized that the problems in Eurozone are far more complex than I understood earlier. German public does not want to take on anyone else's debt. Meanwhile, the Greeks are not going to accept cuts in their salaries and pensions. So, if there is a referendum in Greece, people would vote out of the Euro and if there is another referendum in Germany over the Greek rescue package, Merkel will be kicked out of the government.
The only reason the Greek rescue has survived is due to Governments taking unpopular measures.
At some point, this is going to bit back the Governments in Germany, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. It will take only one collapse of a Goverment to stress the Eurozone to the same and bigger magnitude as was seen recently.
The other option is that while Euro waits for its fate to unfold, global economy starts to take off and pulls the Eurozone towards 1-2% growth that eventually allows some knid of positive feeling and contains the crisis.
Germans only want one thing - price stability and no debts --> German parliament is passing laws to target have Zero deficits in the next few years. With 400 euro minimum salary and working age of 67 and a powerhouse of an economy with 160 billion euro trade surplus every year, there is 0 chance for Italy or Greece or Spain to be competitive with the Germans.
So, in my view, changed recently, it is in the best interests of the Club Med and the Eastern Europeons to jump out of the Eurozone. France and Holland may stick with Germans but other countries are better off with a weaker curency and more tolerable deficits.