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jamshed
(Pakistan)
4 Posts by Anonymous "jamshed":
   
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jamshed
Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 6, 2010 10:51
In Thread: EUR
hi catnip,

my two cents on Eonia - Euribor

the rise in Eonia can be traced from the June 7 date - when the reversal in the Euro happened

As the Euro is increasing, the demand for the Euro is increasing (bubble formation), resulting in rising in Eonia. So, it is not the lack of supply, it is the rising demand for the Euro from Hedge funds and Central Banks that is causing this rise.

When (whenever) Euro falls across months, Eonia will decrease.
So, in a way Ashraf is correct and we should not consider this rise as an indicator of tighetened money lending.

In my view, Euro rise since June 7 started due to the Chinease buying into spanish bonds that ultimately suggested no imminent spanish default resulting in overall improving the sentiment towards the Euro. The 2nd major event has been Bernanke's reversal on QE2 that has taken out the floor from the Dollar. The 3rd event is the Japanease intervention that is resulting in asset allocation out of the Dollar and into the Euro.

This money printing is not sustainable and a peak in Euro should occur with a sharp crisis in Eurozone sometime early next year. For the next 2-3 months, I would not worry too much about the Eurozone. Greece and Spain are covered for now.
jamshed
Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 18, 2010 20:06
In Thread: More Euro Losses Ahead

forgot to add the chart in the post below.....

EURUSD is slowly moving up guys

euro is a buying opportunity...

Euro short contracts reduced by 15000 last week. lets see if there is more or less net shorts by this friday

i do not see a US rate increase this year since it will kill the housing recovery.....

good luck to the euro shorts..... i am long

btw.. Ashraf, what is your Q4 target for Euro? above 1.5 or below 1.30?
I am convinced if US raises rates, it will get a double dip recession, and if it does not rate raises, the Dollar would go down.......

Essentially, I think the currencies are reverting to the pattern from 2006 to mid 2008 due to monetary policy of the US. Although Euro is lagging right now, it will catch up relative to the aussie, br real etc.

theoratical question....... do you think if greece needed financial help, would it go to the eurozone economies or to IMF? I would think it would be IMF rescue if and when needed and that should be it. So, why the massive fear factor for greece? this i fail to understand.....what do u think?

jamshed
jamshed
Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 10, 2009 13:05
In Thread: EURUSD
Hi Ashraf,
interesting notice about 50 dma over 100dma.

widening yields for spain, ireland, italy etc over bunds suggests some eurozone participents will have problems stimulating their economies and fill their budget gaps which should be negative for the euro.
also read some rumours about 400billion russion loans for euro banks looking to go sour.

fundamentally, the euro should do well in the medium to long term.

But I cannot understand the stregth of the dollar in the midst of all these Fed programs. Perhaps will have better clues after I read risk related chapter in your book.

a month ago, I consider euro to be 1.45 in six months and 1.65 by end 2009.
would u like to comment?

but now, it looks like euro fundamentals are fast deteriorating and Trichet does not look smart anymore - when he raised rates in summer 08 - it looked like he knew something the market did not.

(Very much like US - When Greenspan was at the helm, his impression was that he he exactly what he was doing - but now it appears that US is cleaning up the mess created from his exuberence)

btw... I think you should be running your own hedge fund..!
jamshed
Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 12:23
In Thread: EURUSD & US 10-yr Yields
Hi Ashraf,

dont agree here.
10 year yield is increasing since more US debt is coming online along with 900 b stimulus. Bad bank idea is still in the picture. all this is showing up in the 10 year yield and if it stays like this, within this month fed will start buying the 30 year bonds and try to decrease the mortgage rates.
all this is negative for the dollar within 3-6 weeks. EURUSD will rally towards 1.45.
the US is tinkering with fiscal policy, monetary policy, pseudo nationalization and printing money is the best bet for the US Fed.

there is a lot of bickering in the eu about the strength of the euro hurting spain, italy, ireland, greece - but infact euro is giving them serious stability. imagine what would have happened to the italien lira if it had been around. iceland, hungary, rumania etc are looking at a faster entry into the euro to acheive this stability.
inshort, the stability of the eurozone is a long term positive for the euro.

I am a quite surprised at the reluctance of the Japenese to intervene in the Fx markets to devalue the Yen. Its clear that this is the only way to compete globally. How else can the Japanease trigger growth? Any thoughts on this??

Btw... I ordered your book and will come back with more questions :-)

I am in Munich - any CMC seminar planned in the frankfurt area?
br,
jamshed
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