EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
21 and the Temporary Pause
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Just as market sentiment began improving and the US dollar index showed its first 3-day losing run since March, selling resumes across the board. Yesterday's solid US retail sales gave Powell the confidence to stick to his “inflation-remains priority” rhetoric. Interestingly, DXY, EURUSD and US-10 year all stabilized at their 21-day moving averages. No, this is neither a piece about “bear market rallies”, nor about “Intermarket technical confluences” covered successfully at last Thursday's market low. This in fact is about how the market could resume rallying into next week—despite Wednesday's wobble.
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The recent range of 1.58 - 1.64 is broken on the downside, which is likely to set a new lower range for the pair. Expect 1.54 or even 1.50 level.
Any comments?
All JPY crosses are showing some signs of exhaustion and it likely to cap the upside of USD/JPY below 84 for the time being.
Technical development of USD/JPY in hourly chart may point to a short term retracement.
Thus, Ppl already long USD/JPY may think of taking profit at 83.60, and re-enter the position if the pair trades near 82.00 again.
A likely double bottom and neckline at 1.6420.
Receding speculation of QE expansion from BoE supports GBP, while the rising risk aversion limits AUD upside.
Any comments?
What's your view on CAD/JPY?
Seems that the pair found strong support at around 78.50 and ready for 81.00 in the ST.
Gold/oil ratio (falling) points to a stronger oil this week, with Friday's Canada GDP (look for a positive growth), CAD is benefited.
In addtion, a tiny upside for JPY only as it trades near 79.78/80 level.
Thanks!
Justin
No one will exit the euro-zone, as the cost is too expensive.
Love your EUR analysis. Do you think the 1.27 target will come earlier than your forecast?
Justin