EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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After that, not just the direction, but the pattern on the hourly chart, looks different. I guess the bears were still trying to force it down, but could not overwhelm the bullish buying. Before that date, it had been falling like a knife, with no one catching it.
Not sure if the timing tallies exactly though.
Looking on the daily chart, the turn in the market was after the low of 7th June, before the "Yuan Depeg" announcement. Perhaps there were other factors that started the turn, like bad US data, Euroland manoeuvring, or perhaps China was just buying Euros at that point.
Also, between 21st-30th June, the upward swing seemed to have faltered, fooling some of us into believing the long downward trend had resumed. Subsequently, the big upmoves (to date) happened on the 1st July, 13th July and 15th July, with not much in the way of retracement in between.
"EUR gained strength across the board following a well received 15-year bond auction from Spain, waning sovereign concerns to some extent, as well as better than expected earnings from JPMorgan. Market talk of an Asian central bank buying in EUR/USD provided strength to the pair, the RANsquawk Research Team said. "
Is that last bit about Asian central bank buying likely to be for real, do people think?
What is "Asian central bank" code for? China? (Japan?).
You are all right, of course. I have always assumed responsibility for my own trades. How can it be otherwise? But trends, and more importantly trend changes are easy to spot...in hindsight. And when the fundamentals don't really appear to have changed....well, one can be caught off-guard. That's where money-management and all those other good things come into importance...to limit your risk and losses.
Clearly market sentiment changed regarding the USD, what with a series of bad US data, plus Europe at least appearing to get to grips with sovereign debt.
It is clear as crystal (now) that the EUR/USD market changed around 7th June. Kudos to those who either anticipated this, or spotted it early. Not that many, if postings here are anything to go by.
Well, looking forward, I see that an FXstreet analyst is saying that if the weekly close is above 1.28, then another round of short-covering may take place. I guess then that 1.30 would be relatively easily achievable.
Anyway, this is quite interesting:
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/the-forex-technical-report/2010-07-15.html
Seriously though, a lot can happen between now and late Q3/early Q4, which was AL's most recent estimate for such a level. Still lots of problems in the Eurozone I think. Lots of problems in the US as well of course, and elsewhere.
@Coach: Good trade(s). Be happy you are on the right side of this market :)