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70 Posts Total by "raulin":
64 Posts by member
raulin
(london, United Kingdom)
6 Posts by Anonymous "raulin":
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raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 22, 2009 13:11
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
Qin
I never base trades based on a 50% probability that is the probability you get from tossing a coin I like 80% at least. 50% is what you get from shorting sterling in the middle of a range.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 22, 2009 13:07
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Great analysis as usual. I 100% share your views about this oil fuelled rally based on poor inventories and highlighted it earlier in ,for me the skeleton in the closet is european banks which have never been tested, and of course rising unemployment. Until market sees increasing comsumer demand there is a limit to these oil and equity rallies, but there is a climate of optimism which although based on dubious funadamentals should not be ignored and it is possible we see DOW AT 10,000 again this year.Have a great vacation!
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 21:06
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
Qin You are 50% sure of a dollar correction in September.? Why don't you toss a coin?
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 21, 2009 21:01
In Thread: USDJPY Cyclical Peaks
Hi Ashraf
When people analyse euro they think of old deutschmark and Germany strength they never think of its weak members Spain,Ireland, Italy , Greece. These countries are in far worse condition than US.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 19, 2009 21:58
In Thread: Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil
insane day... no point in even analysing.Yet again, New York reverses like a crazy man because of low inventories of oil not a rationale for rallying stock market.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 16, 2009 22:49
In Thread: Quantitative Easing & Currency Strengthening
Hi Ashraf
Do you not think that positive news about Japan GDP will be positive for Japan equities positive for aussie/jpy and negative for JPY ? The only reason to buy the low yielding yen is in a risk averse environment. I do agree with you about usd/jpy looking bearish overall especially stalling at 97
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 29, 2009 22:58
In Thread: USDJPY 4-week Cycles
Another thing that strikes me is that be careful about fixed correlations. As the US stock market picks up, if not their economy people will want to buy those companies and they will use dollars to do so hence increasing value of dollar as stocks go up ..this may take some time to play out but we are seeing tentative signs
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 29, 2009 22:53
In Thread: USDJPY 4-week Cycles
Ashraf I genuinely appreciate your incisive comments Keep them coming. You have a lot of goo
d calls and you seem to love your job! With regard to U/J I think that u/j has more upside potential, however, first to 96.50 and then to 97.20. The stock markets have not plummeted with oil depreciating which tells me that there is a still a lot of risk appetite. This of course may be tempered by negative data but markets are irrational. We all know how frustrating it is to enter New York market when they reverse everything that has happened before in european market. I think in these markets the best thing to trade with is open mind and use regression to the mean!
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 25, 2009 14:37
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Except neckline was at 885 call it 880 at lowest ....there is no doubt about this. It is clear to see on charts if you doubt me see ref corey rosenboom excellent "afraid to trade " site also Jerry Furst on fxstreet (he is a proponent of h and s ).I think you have to be very careful to trade this pattern alone .....
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 25, 2009 12:29
In Thread: NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63
Head and shoulders has become a pattern to trade against. usd/jpy, gbp/jpy so many failed head and shoulders and the S&P and Dow in the dailies were failed head and shoulders though no doubt exponents will say that yes on the weeklies there were inverted head and shoulders.Poor predictive accuracy.
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