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Posts by "raulin"

70 Posts Total by "raulin":
64 Posts by member
raulin
(london, United Kingdom)
6 Posts by Anonymous "raulin":
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Oct 7, 2009 21:35
To go back to the Yen ..this is an export dependent economy with a currency too strong. What happens to their GDP? It falls when JPY strengthens. What happens to their debt? It rises.Right now they have to pay interest on debt at 18% of tax revenues.This is NOT a healthy economy. The debt, currently mostly serviced by native Japanese will need to be serviced more and more by foreigners at a very low interest rate that is not attractive to the purchasers so yen has to depreciate or interest rates rise. They have already deflation, negative growth and you want to raise interest rates? SO FALLING YEN IS THE ONLY temporary SOLUTION
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 24, 2009 19:18
Ashraf ..Do you have data on the positive predictive value in head and shoulders pattern when neckline broken? It should be 70 percent plus but I don't think it's anywhere near that.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 22:36
Ashraf Intuitively with higher interest rate it looked as if aussie was appreciating more with equities rising than NZD BUT this does not seem to have been the case and if anything NZD was appreciating more hence it looked a better short when equities fall I struggle to explain why NZD should be doing better than aussie so I am staying away from shorts.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 17:54
Spec are you answering your own questions ? You asked why gold has sold off so much? Then you give a reason for it based on technicals ?
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 18:25
gbp/jpy for its daily ATR always following usd/jpy as that's the boss but too slow moving.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 14:56
Hi Ashraf . What we are at is clearly an inflection point with higher yields on 10 yr Treasuries curbing stock market gains. It is likely that US govt will above else attempt to curb these yields as they reflect higher long term mortgage rates and a big brake on a very delicate housing "recovery". This will nominally have a very dollar negative effect but when you look at what you buy with your dollars euro and gbp , aud, nzd.These are in even worse condition than US (UK and eurozone ) where at least the US is the world's reserve currency and everywhere else is also indulging in quantitative easing so if the US fails, they do too as well. Underpinning the recovery is a bottom in house prices which has NOT been reached and likely to be derailed by higher long term interest rates. China's growth is all export based, they have been stockpiling commodities with no increase in domestic demand ..so if they have no one to sell to they are not going to do too well either and that disposes of aussie and NZD.It's really interesting some of my friends are now looking to buy in good areas of London as if they think now is bargain of the century but it ain't no bargain if we head back to 1997 prices like Japan did!