Posts by "speculator"

Even jim rogers is saying its a good time to short risk and large correction overdue? OK well he is not the greatest market timer or most accurate but what he indirectly implying is buy USD!!! With air travel stil in limbo expect more USD strength

election speculation is playing a part but only a part. the problem in uk is over-expenditure and lack of tax-receipts for the government. The government is way too generous for people that dont want to work and of course subsidised medical/hospital service.

The position of the debts can only get better if economy improves greatly otherwise more debt required to finance country. Inflation, interest rate hikes and gasoline inflation would all contribute to depressed economic activity leading to further increase in UK borrowing in 2011 and beyond. There is no way in hell that consumers would feel indifferent on the spending if interest rates rose even 1%!!!!! they will become far more cautious on their spending habits.

soros is clearly betting on lower sterling. But the nature of UKs debts are mainly far from maturity so they are highly unlikley to default any time soon. However other issues that could cause UK recession again:

High gasloine prices due to ever increasing taxes coupled with general inflation and rising interest rates will cause the double dip many economists expect. Moreover, wages are barely going up but taxes have so the consumer will be hardly hit when BoE hike as half of mortgages are linked to the rate and currently enjoying extra income to spend.

however, i see a lot of profit taking for cable prior to elections which could easy force below 1.50. Interesting to see non-commercial speculative positions?

ashraf, its seems like theres a lot of uncertainty now on the direction of USDx. I read on bloomberg some weeks ago that dollar had reached a highly bullish sentiment reading. cant remember the relative magnitude but to me it signalled that the dollars recent run had come to an end as there was little further room for more bullishness. But yes, dollar could do with some retreat before rallying further in to the summer in conjunction to FED tightening of some sort.

i think investors to some extent are now not believing in the dollar rally as fed havent done any recent tighening and greece rescue forming.

Fed is so smart, they are trying to keep credit market and dollar stable. Why would they want to increase their borrowing costs so soon..they just keep the market guessing which is bad for fx traders of course. but on the other hand they want to keep foreign treasury investors happy by preserving the dollars value by threatening to hike any time soon. Also, im sure they would be worried about a run on the dollar as its reservce status could become a potential reality. so they are just trying to have a balance it seems.