Posts by "stationdealer"

Hands On a Week Market

Markets are hot and cold up and downbullish then bearish day to day. Until trends are established lighten up and adjust your trading size. Yesterday it appeared a close below the 50 day MA in Crude had prices poised to move lower but a late day rally allowed prices to hold that level; in September at $76.50. With dollar weakness, a rally in the indices, a tropical disturbance on the horizon and buying from China we could have a new leg higher. Unfortunately we advised energy traders to lighten up yesterday and now we will be likely re-entering on a dip at higher levels. A 61.8% retracement would carry prices in September to $83.75 in the coming weeks. Natural gas poked its head above the 100 day MA today. We continue to suggest purchasing October 50 cent call spreads. Irrational exuberance in equities today that we expect to be short lived with indices gaining 2-3% as of this post. As long as the 200 day MA caps rallies at 11103 we expect a move south from here. Clients continue to sell rallies and purchase September puts. Could this be the last gasp in sugar as October pushed 4.75% higher today approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement. Traders note how much the front month moved relative to the next few contracts. On another 3-5% appreciation in coffee we will look to be a seller for clients. Even with soft housing numbers lumber gained nearly 4% today. We suggest a small long position thinking we get a bounce from here. Cattle on feed report tomorrow; traders who remain long December were advised to purchase inexpensive August puts as a hedge into tomorrows number. Look to trade the break out in gold; above $1200 or below $1180. September silver has bounced off the 200 day MA and managed a close back above the 100 day MA today gaining 1.6%. Aggressive futures traders stay long as long as $17.40 holds and option traders should continue to buy December call spreads. A failed rally in December corn had prices closing 10 cents off their highs. Look to be a buyer of December below $3.80. Likewise we are prepared to get clients long soybeans and soy meal from lower levelssee previous posts. All our clients gains in the Euro and Swissie from yesterday were given back today?? Clients remain short the Euro via options and the Swiss franc via futures and options.

for now it looks like a buy!

Qi-Man what's happening Friday?

Stationdealer
UK

July 20, 2010 17:02 ET

3 days on risk aversion Euro rallied today and next *3 Days* it should according to theory

Cont.................


The pound continues to outperform the continental euro on the view that the domestic economy is less bruised than that of the Eurozone with the euro weaker today at 83.95 pence.

AUD The Aussie suffered on the hang-ups investors have over global growth concerns. Yesterdays revelations over further monetary policy tightening initially buoyed the dollar, but subsided as investors focus shifted to safety of the yen. The common belief is that the Aussie needs a further monetary stimulus to provide an incremental yield benefit if it is going to hurdle the 90.00 U.S. cent barrier. The preconditions for further action as laid out in the RBA minutes are blue skies following the European banking tests and an uncomfortable second quarter inflation reading due next week. Forex dealers relaxed the odds of a double-win here and sold the Aussie earlier as it fell to 88.18 cents before it rebounded to 88.59.

CAD The Canadian dollar has torn the greenback to shreds following Tuesdays 25 basis point increase at the Bank of Canada. The surprising thing, however, is that the Bank sounded cautious about any further moves, which initially sent the loonie reeling to an intraday low. However, since then it hasnt looked back and has flown off the handle to as high as 96.54 U.S. cents or roughly two cents over yesterdays weakest point. Crude oil and several base metals prices rebounded also sparking demand for the commodity-sensitive currency.