EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Silver fell in step with gold on Monday, but unlike the more prominent metal, silver did not break recent support levels. In the event that gold continues to fall, there is no question that silver will follow. While there may be minor fluctuations in the gold/silver ratio between 60 and 70, in all likelihood, the two metals will remain tied at the hip for the foreseeable future. Prices have formed a descending triangle chart formation above support at $17.42. This setup is typically a continuation pattern, hinting further gains ahead. That said, it also carries a negative connotation and may hint at an emerging bearish bias. A break below support exposes $16.81, while a rebound sees initial resistance at $18.73.
Pushing crude oil to the downside are the fears regarding the world economy and the possibility of a double dip. World equity markets remain well off their recent highs and economic data has indicated a slowing of growth around the globe. If major world economies fall into a second phase of contraction, crude oil prices will likely fall steeply. Prices continue to consolidate inside a rising channel. Initial support lines up near $75.00, while resistance is seen in the $78.13-79.38 congestion region.
EUR/USD has gradually moved higher along with EUR/JPY demand and EUR/CHF has also sneaked higher as risk-trades were back in vogue. Ranges: 1.2927/73, EUR/CHF 1.3638/71
EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range around .8500 leaving the cable to follow in step with the EUR/USD. Ranges: 1.5214/69, .8495/.8508.
The AUD has been very busy. AUD/USD fell first with the tech stock results but rallied strongly thereafter with strong AUD/JPY demand at the fix driving that pair higher. The RBA minutes slowed the rally for a while but once traders digested the comments, the short covering resumed. Ranges: .8669/.8785, AUD/JPY 75.10/76.60
EUR/JPY is again approaching what is looming as pivotal resistance at 113.00. AUD/USD has also moved up sharply towards expected sell orders above .8750. The market is still being influenced by unusually large demand for USD/JPY and the JPY crosses at the Fix and is ignoring the lower Nikkei.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact. Aussie traders bought AUD/USD because USD/JPY was going up and were left sitting long after the release of the latest RBA minutes. Nowhere to go except down after that with AUD/USD sliding from .8735 to .8715. Offers above .8750 continue to cap the market. I still dont know what is going on at this level but the professional money continues to sell rallies towards 113.00, 112.85 the high so far today, and I would guess that the stops above 113.20 are getting bigger and bigger. The market is getting nervy about stop losses in EUR/JPY and USD/JPY above 113.50 and 87.50 respectively. If you really want to sell into strength, keep stops tight.
China passes US as Worlds biggest energy consumer
The changing dynamic in the global economy can again be seen in this Bloomberg article.http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVuSRbX5SRtI&pos=2
China will allow foreign investors to trade the new index futures market for hedging purposes only, will only allow them to use up to 10% of their agreed investment quotas, and trades must be closely linked to the spot market (Reuters quote reports in the China Securities Journal). Obviously speculators are persona non grata.
Weve got a mixed bag on our hands today with the dollar generally weak but there are exceptions. GBP has fallen back below 1.5240/45 support to session lows just below 1.5220. Commodity currencies, particularly CAD is soft as momentum traders jump on the euro bandwagon.
EUR/USD has dipped back after failing it overcome earlier highs, a sign markets do not want to get carried away on the topside until they have the stress-test results behind them It trades now at 1.2968.
Along with GBP on open we also started selling AUD as over the weekend there was announcement of the general election, that brings uncertainty back into the picture for AUD, when it comes to picking a government for Oz. But it will rally back of any good economic data or forecast, so for now selling on rallies to continue in these two currencies for short term.
U.K. Home Prices Will Drop Through 2012, Capital Economics Says http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-15/u-k-home-prices-will-drop-through-2012-capital-economics-says.html
Good night and have a good weekend everyone.
Well its not one thing really its number of factors
Fact its just short squeeze before the world leader go on their prep breaks in August
Before Q4 starts and the final summon for 2011, (which will be a real fractional year) to find bottoms and show 2011 will give moderate growth and what more it wont stop them from raising growth forecast mid2011. Fed made a very cleaver move to reduce growth figures and use them as collateral next year when they would really really really need to prove that they are getting out of a recession.
Fact that before Q4 the financial news media needs more grounds to run propagandas and dooms day scenario, just so their channels can spread more links on the web and finally to desperate individuals.
Fact that in order to show growth in the economy in 2011 gov head and the Fed needs to tactically show and prove again to the public that deficit has reduced. That will happen from T-note, further QE to ensure public bond safety, but with austerity coming ahead to hit America like never before and with spending cut, so with deficit reduce its pace only I dont believe T's will yeild much but the stock will rally again. Proving my point why stock may show faith to buyer around Mid 2011. Once stocks gain more trader and money back in the market the FED monetary policy will find it their duty to naturally naturally finds get a stronger dollar as globally US stock market will be back in demand by some twisted faith. Strong stock = Stonrger dollar. Same time i think US property will find its feet again after some states get bailout, Mark MY WORDS Here, Only 2 or 3 states get bailed out property will come back, not before that.
Still few worth while things for longer term to keep in mind....
So you wonder what's here in the shorter term, well!!!
Now you must have notice commodities playing neutral to declining dollar. Meaning that the dollar is exactly where it made a high in may, exactly when Gold broker 1165 top side and moved into 1200, Oil when slid and moved below 84.50 channel for a leg down, exactly where copper lost momentum, exactly when the European bail out was about to be announced. So you ask again what does that means for the markets and Euro in particular, well that the Euro has enough in it to pull a 136, considering Euro clearly breaks 13120 and cable a 158 correspondingly in weeks ahead but that would put a spanner in the works for the sort game play I discussed above.
So fundamentals for this quarter are much expected will remain stable in sense much to the delights of the economists, so with not much news for the media to talk about or to manufacture (e.g oil gush) , and mainly the rhetoric of discussion mainly being a reflection of this year, any exception that will come will be precipitated only as market noise.
Thus in this quite weeks and months ahead the markets have plenty of technicality to talk about and allot of technical noise to generate. Nothing gets buyer and investors back in the market like hearing Gold finally hits 1080 support level, oil rebound from 68 to test again 92 94. Plus we need spot rate to settle and test 126 127 128 and 130 price handles to check for demand. Worst comes worse top I still see 13090 for next week and not more than that. and for couple of week we will these levels before we start smelling the whiff of the next break out in Euro up or down who knows.
And that before Obama returns from his holidays and announces that he's developed a skin problem and that he's about to turn white just dont freak out, I'll still be black inside don't buy anything Unamerican :)
That Ben is going to get a shave
King will lose 40 Lbs
and Trichet finally get to get laid :D
EUR/USD: Early Foray Into 1.2890s Proves Short-Lived
The early European EUR/USD foray into the 1.2890s has proved short-lived, with trading only managing to hit a 1.2890 low before the dip attracted better buyers. As a result it has returned to the comfort of the low-1.29s, with supply still tipped to trail from the 1.2920s to the 1.2955 overnight top. Short-term profit-taking cannot be ruled out heading into the weekend but topside targets around 1.30 continue to be mentioned.
GBP/USD: Toying With Key Weekly Resistance.
A wall of offers reportedly that sits just ahead of the 1.5500 level looks to have spooked the market away from Thursdays late 1.5479 highs and set up a softer start to the Friday session. Suggestions that the combination of heavy currency option protection and sizeable UK corporate supply could are keeping the cross below the 1.5500 level into the weekend. Good sized bids are rumored to sit tight under 1.5400. With EUR/GBP just about clinging to an underlying bull trend it is anticipated that GBPUSD will mirror EUR/USD today. For today a range of 1.5390-1.5490 is seen with risk to 1.5525.
USD/JPY: Pip Shy Of 9-Month Lows, Stops Above Offers Into 87.50 USD/JPY traded to a 86.27 low, a break of the 86.49 the 9-Month lows. However, the pair has again failed to cement the push below 86.00, with trading recovering back above 87s. Smaller intraday positions will be cleansed if the Dollar rebound continues, with orders noted above the offers into the 87.50-area. EUR/JPY offers in the 113s are back in focus following the latest Euro gains, with 113.40/50 key to the topside into the weekend.
AUD/USD: Lifts Intraday But Uptrend Running Out Of Steam
The Aussie was back under pressure overnight. AUD/JPY selling in Tokyo, reportedly related to the new Japanese margin rules, was a main driver of the AUD/USDs fall. AUD/JPY we sold off from around 78.25 to 75.10 before demand into the figure helped like wise. 0.8745 bids propped and the pair is currently lifting close to the 0.8700 mark again. Worse than expected Chinese data has weighed on the Aussie the last few days and the technical picture also suggests that the uptrend in AUD/USD could be running out of steam. The bearish price action overnight from the open has traded close to the 10-day Moving Average (0.8718) and reaction to here is now key.