Posts by "stationdealer"

USDJPY just brokered below 88 level, which till earlier I was thinking could have been a nice triple bottom. Then this level if had held, the next topside target would have been the 38.2% fibonacci retracement line at 88.33 on the move from the low on July 7th to the high on the 12th; further is the 100 hour moving average coming in at 88.57. Below 86.90

I mean this is the S&P chart we are talk about.

The daily EURO already looks strong but buyer already have played out much of its strength as buyer are cautious of 127 128 area and its significance. It has rallied twice in 2007 and 2008 from those levels and rallied it did big and strong. Obviously for central banker and financial institutions that is the key area of interest. So Euro hitting 128 handle comes as no surprise. But this area is acting up as a significant resistance area only this time, if you want to see this pair just in recent history. OK 2010 price action for the pair has put a dent in Euro's rally that started early as 2001 and a what a rally it was. But I question is the bigger picture still intact, are we still in a up trend on Euro only to have been met with price correction levels. Considering Euro is only young we have known of its lows and lower historical support levels, but what we don't know is what heights it can really go to. If we remain intact in the price handle levels like 126 127 128 for another say 3 weeks we could be talking about an upside even in Q4 maybe like how I see is around 136, but only 13140 will confirm that.

Although the outlook considering the reforms and policy problem that struck the E-zone this year did struck a course for a downward suggestive trend. But the pair stopped well before the lows of 2004's price failure level of 11790, which would also have been major area of concern for Central Banks. Cause there after the only significant support level was 10610 and then to the pit. Its obvious that the CB's does not what the EURO in those levels as yet or was not comfortable with the rate of decline seen in past some months, hence it intervened. And still keep the big picture in our minds like the price action for this decade;

We need to reflect how the our counter trade party exchange is positioning its price mark. While most US trader or even institution may come out and say "I dont understand what EURO is doing up there, its real price is below parity" are themselves seen in this decade alone many a times dumping dollars and favouring another currency for short term benefits. Euro was the new kid on the block so sometimes it got favoured more sometimes the others. But this general trend amongst US financial institution has been going on for more than a decade now which really took off in the late 80's. They did that with regularly Asiatic currencies, European currencies or shape short term cash bonds in the past. So the problem is not in the sentiment its in the culture, which I'm sure will have to change sooner than later. But same time a global reserve currency that generally relies on one countries domestic economic health does not look good to stay intact for long either. And then the sentiment around reserve reform and its governance rhetoric still seem unchallengeable through global political agenda's or with Central Banks policy issues.

That said I dont really know what's solution for dollar or its status as a global reserve currency really means for the Americans themselves. I mean shouldn't they be concerned with this Dollar decline for the last 20 to 30 years is there no raise of concern globally for that. I mean yes Greece was not as big as US to continue raising their deficit level, but really How Big is BIG really? How big is 1 trillion 3 trillion, 4 trillion. How many trillion's worth is America for, or is it too Big and Good and Greater when seen in comparison with the rest of the world. I mean with can still exist and think Globally with certain exclusions can we not! I know my discussion is truely going the other way but really you have to think. If the deficits are the global problems then remove the global reserve rights, dissolve the IMF, world bank, who will the nation owe money to next NO ONE! Will prosperity be too hard to see from there I dont think so.

Beware Technical Trap, Lower Lows in S&P

-When the Dow fell below the 200-day moving average;
-After the Dow closed above the 50-day moving average
-When the Dow hit a new low for the year.
-The break below the June 8 low of 9757 (confirming a head-and-shoulders pattern)

read more
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/kilgore-beware-technical-trap-lower-lows/

FOMC tweaks lower growth and inflation outlook
by Peter Boockvar

Within the minutes of the June FOMC meeting where they reviewed the economic stats seen since the prior meeting, they believed looking forward that the recovery in economic activity would be moderate thru 2011, supported by accommodative monetary policy, an attenuation of financial stress, and strengthening consumer and business confidence. They did say that the pace of recovery will be somewhat slower than previously predicted and they also reduced their expectations for both headline and core inflation slightly. Some members wanted to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably. In terms of helping the economy, I believe their gun is out of real bullets and all they got left is water. They have reached the law of diminishing returns and Fed impotence is a growing risk