Posts by "stationdealer"

Well noted by JPM.

To truly sterilize the ECB could:
(1) sell bonds out of its existing portfolio (but they're pretty much the same bonds they're planning on buying in)
(2) wait for existing holdings to mature (defeats the purpose again)
(3) sell other asset holdings i.e. gold (but that creates a relatively low upper limit for intervention)
(4) unwind LTRO funding prior to the 12mth anniversary. Perhaps. How many banks that took LTRO funds are now sitting on surplus cash at 0%? (i.e. have too much liquidity, and are eroding capital) Cutting the deposit rate below zero and releasing even more surplus cash into the system via bond purchases would strengthen the incentive. (only the ECB knows....)

Which leaves us with the less permanent options: a deposit facility or shorter-dated open market operations (i.e. repo out assets it is holding as a result of other monetary operations, such as LTRO collateral). At the short end, they don't sterilize anything or change the risk profile materially - just change the name of the facility. However, if cash were to be locked away for the tenor of the bonds purchased, then perhaps those facilities would do the trick too. After all, what makes some things QE and other things not? A bond purchased will mature eventually (or can be sold), an overnight operation like a repo (or discount window loan) can be rolled indefinitely. The difference lies in where credit risk sits, and thus where capital is required. That's what will drive the impact on the broader economy

Any seller in gold toady. Already stuck from 1389, I've decided to sell heavy from 1415 as i dont believe this can last long in the temporary short term momentum, environment. Till the Fed announces the measures to the next QE i think dollar pretty much will stay afloat and competitive for a while.

So selling from here long term is easy its not that its gonna hit 2000 without testing this years low of 1044 and pretty mush momentum close to running out. So if any one has any sense let in then they hold gold etf's carry the sellers leg down. cuz after the currency war is over its going to be commodity wars. Which we can see already showing some early signs.

I see the on going pressure of dollar strength momentum now we can have a nice reversal and hopefully continuation of long in euro and GBP. So long EU and GBp and if momentum breaks further lets get in for the 3rd leg of down side move. Not yet sure about Yen so far as it may react the swisse when SNB was intervening probably not as huge as swisse effect but surely some what of an effect that will confuse traders.

Metals on the other hand I hold short near term. Oil another weak base commodity back of dollar roll over. Mean while S&P, Nasdaq and Dow do make good indicators at whole a picture of the american economy, wait till the M3 data will be received next month.

and if it break further lower 73 and next target will be 68-69. If Ben is playing his cards right i think we will have very good indication of it happening well before the new trends start.

So the banks baring hedges on currencies will have a good effect on dollar many months later when they want to shift all gain back in to USD by the end of next quarter next year.