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Posts by "tradingwala"

12 Posts by member
tradingwala
(Mumbai, India)
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 27, 2019 10:27
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Ok with the example you have give, I have to believe when you say central banks of developed world are independent.

But from mkt point of view, if the slow down is in next 6 months, then dont you think, the announcement of QE4 will nullify its effect & it might prop up the mkts.
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 26, 2019 20:32
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Hi Ashraf

I didnt mean "Fed will do QE4 for political purposes".
What I meant was "Is FED really independent? I mean is there even a 1% probability of it getting influenced/pressurized? If the answer is yes, then the above argument is defeated & FED can very well take influenced decisions!!

In India atleast the Reserve Bank Of India isnt independent? Infact, why should any reserve bank should be for that matter? If I am the head of govt, I would like my reserve bank to act in a certain way which I believe is good for economy.

Also, as per what I have gathered from your thoughts, you see economy in dire straits by Q12020. Correct?
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 25, 2019 13:30
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Thanks for the reply!

My belief of "QE4 will drive higher the long-term borrowing cost" is given!! But as you rightly said, from when?

As far as using QE4 to drive up the stock markets is concerned, I still believe Donald Trump doesnt care about popular beliefs like politically-motivated QE4 decision etc. He will do what he wants to do!!

He simply wants to boost his 'resume' by propping up the stock markets nothing else!

Btw if in case Trump is impeached, will the overall scheme of things fall apart including QE4? Will everything go for a toss?
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 23, 2019 18:32
In Thread: Will Fed do QE4?
Vote: Q1 2020

QE4 is as INEVITABLE! Should happen as early as Q12020.
Reasons:
1. FED need to increase money supply as early as possible because since 2008, its for the first time it has injected emergency liquidity! Balance sheet expansion have to happen!
2. 2020 is presidential year. Need a booster dose at a right time (atleast 2 qtrs) for equity markets to perform because Trump's barometer is stock market.

But QE4 will drive higher the long-term borrowing cost!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 18, 2019 20:33
In Thread: Fed & USD
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Thanks Ashraf for explaining various points. Its always a pleasure to read your incisive analysis. When it comes to inter-mkt analysis, you are at the apex level!

I believe we will see some day FED starting buying equities!
When do you see it, if at all?
May be after 2020 United States presidential election, probably 2nd half of 2021 or much before that?
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 17, 2019 6:07
In Thread: Fed & USD
Vote: No cut USD rises

Changing my answer after yesterday's wild oil rally with uncertainty ahead!
Last Option 6 = No cut USD rises
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 16, 2019 19:32
In Thread: Fed & USD
Vote: 25bp USD rises

Though US economy is doing good with strong labor market & ~2% inflation (FED's target), there are many headwinds/risks due to trade war with China, uncertainty with Brexit, global economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions etc. So, 25bps cut is given.
Remember STRONG US ECONOMY = STRONG US DOLLAR. With buoyant economy & weakness elsewhere, a rate cut won't result in weak dollar.
Hence, option 2 i.e. 25bp USD rises!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
3 years ago
Mar 14, 2017 11:05
Probably a lot more is required on the employment front to hike the rates esp on 15th March, 2017.

Not sure of the rosy picture presented in this aspect.

I expect ONLY 1 rate hike that too in September, 2017!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
3 years ago
Nov 9, 2016 14:06
In the meantime, EURO fighting for the 2nd position. It should reach there by next week. Last time it was at 4th position just ahead of CHF!

Now the next point of contention i.e. rate hike decision in Dec 2016 now OVER, the only important event remaining is 8th dec, 2016 ECB meet.

Exactly a month to go for that and then we have to ALSO prepare for the Santa Rally - lol
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
3 years ago
Oct 13, 2016 19:39
Vote: EUR

Though JPY looks a clear winner by end of 2016, EUR can be the dark horse after ECB meet on 8th Dec16 because neither ECB nor BOJ will act before these US elections and especially before FOMC on 15th Dec16!

So my money is on this dark horse EUR because after all this is the FIGHT between the UK & EU!!!

In the meantime next week's important UK data will decide if GBPUSD 1.2 will break or not?

BTW many are still underestimating the safe haven demand of CHF. Slowly and steadily GBPCHF is eyeing 2011 lows! May be this one is for 2017 headlines!