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Posts by "tradingwala"

4 Posts by member
tradingwala
(Mumbai, India)
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Nov 9, 2016 14:06
In the meantime, EURO fighting for the 2nd position. It should reach there by next week. Last time it was at 4th position just ahead of CHF!

Now the next point of contention i.e. rate hike decision in Dec 2016 now OVER, the only important event remaining is 8th dec, 2016 ECB meet.

Exactly a month to go for that and then we have to ALSO prepare for the Santa Rally - lol
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
3 months ago
Oct 13, 2016 19:39
Vote: EUR

Though JPY looks a clear winner by end of 2016, EUR can be the dark horse after ECB meet on 8th Dec16 because neither ECB nor BOJ will act before these US elections and especially before FOMC on 15th Dec16!

So my money is on this dark horse EUR because after all this is the FIGHT between the UK & EU!!!

In the meantime next week's important UK data will decide if GBPUSD 1.2 will break or not?

BTW many are still underestimating the safe haven demand of CHF. Slowly and steadily GBPCHF is eyeing 2011 lows! May be this one is for 2017 headlines!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
1 year ago
Jan 3, 2016 3:52
Dear Ashraf - Would love to see your comments on these above 6 options along with YOUR VOTE!!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
1 year ago
Jan 3, 2016 3:50
Vote: Fed rate cut

To begin with, I didn’t expect FED rate hike in DEC 2015. Though it became almost certain in last 1-2 months, it messed up my analysis across asset classes!

Since the rate hike cycle has just begun, except for EURUSD <0.9 every other option here looks a shock/surprise in 2016. Why? Because-
•The FED rate cut would be a big policy blunder and an antithesis to rate hike.
•My theory is that if FED hikes further in 2016, then China can’t crash at all.
•In strong dollar environment EURUSD >1.25 looks extremely difficult.
•And how can you declare US recession in an election year of 2016.

So, to me the biggest shock/surprise of 2016 could be a FED rate cut! On UK exit from EU, I am confused.

How about giving the first half of 2016 to a stronger Dollar and decide on 2nd half in June-July 2016!!