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tradingwala
(Mumbai, India)
 
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tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
8 years ago
Jan 3, 2016 3:52
In Thread: What will be the biggest shock/surprise of 2016?
Dear Ashraf - Would love to see your comments on these above 6 options along with YOUR VOTE!!
tradingwala
Mumbai, India
Posts: 0
8 years ago
Jan 3, 2016 3:50
In Thread: What will be the biggest shock/surprise of 2016?
Vote: Fed rate cut

To begin with, I didn’t expect FED rate hike in DEC 2015. Though it became almost certain in last 1-2 months, it messed up my analysis across asset classes!

Since the rate hike cycle has just begun, except for EURUSD <0.9 every other option here looks a shock/surprise in 2016. Why? Because-
•The FED rate cut would be a big policy blunder and an antithesis to rate hike.
•My theory is that if FED hikes further in 2016, then China can’t crash at all.
•In strong dollar environment EURUSD >1.25 looks extremely difficult.
•And how can you declare US recession in an election year of 2016.

So, to me the biggest shock/surprise of 2016 could be a FED rate cut! On UK exit from EU, I am confused.

How about giving the first half of 2016 to a stronger Dollar and decide on 2nd half in June-July 2016!!


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