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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 20:34
Yeah Gunjack I been harnessing the ES today, nice to be trading the sob short again. Must admit I never thought about the downside to my theory, must be getting old :-) Think if I were your generation I would get the hell out.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 20:09
Hey dave what a mad day on the markets... FTSE took an absolute pounding. HSBC getting smacked like a little bit$h due to it's Asia connections and the rest of the banking sector heading south for god knows what reason. Still I am adding to current blue chip positions as am willing to see this crisis out and reap the sweet harvest later this year.

I agree with your analysis, I have noticed a big reduction of E European migrants in london myself . In my v unscientific test I have noticed a big reduction in the number of their girls out and about in the clubs in the city. I myself am contemplating migration to Aus or Canada as the quality of life for ppl of my generation is quite poor.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 19:33
Just as risk appetite used to take over at the expense of USD and JPY against major currencies, fear has gripped the markets, prompting the major averages well below the 55-day MAs, calling the next targets at 11480 and 1230 for Dow-30 and SP500 respectively.

The latest targets from todays earlier IMTs and Twitter entries have been hit, 0.9770 in AUDUSD, 1.3870 in EURUSD and 0.9080s in USDCHF. With further risk aversion seen into weeks end (and not always necessarily at the session in hand), traders ought to wait for the intraday retracements (such as 30 and 40 pips bounces in AUDUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD) to trigger fresh shorts. Note how shorting USDCHF continues to become an effective partial hedge for the long USD trade.

And as I argued in my latest article (see herehttp://bit.ly/ hzMCKX ) EURUSD remains supported at 1.3860-70s for on-the-dip entries into 1.3930-50s. THESE IMTs will become paid of a PREMIUM SECTION in AshrafLaidi.com starting from April. There will be a paid and non-paid section.

Ashraf
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 11:39
Gunjack, following my little driving up country fundamental analysis I thought the claimant count # today was mighty interesting. Last govnmt allowed the floodgates open for immigration over many years. No one has any idea population of uk. The national survey should be interesting.

My suspicion is a significant exodus of both illegal and legal varieties. Cornwall is no guide as we have very few foreign immigrants here aside of polish seasonal farm workers for fruit growing etc. Our infrastructure is under massive strain in the 8 month holiday season but the local economy is reliant on tourism and in more recent years on second home owners who in truth take out more than they give.

Whenever I have ventured up country over the past 15 yrs the thing that struck me was the ever increasing population placing impossible burdens upon our infrastructures in this tiny country. The official labour govnmt population # was an enormous joke from my perspective and I think that will yet become revealed. What I saw on my excursion to the S.E this year was a dramatic reduction in traffic and people in the towns I visited.
jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 7:28
long s & p 1260
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 0:10
I think if crude and comods have topped out (unlikely) then high probability stocks have topped out for a very long time indeed.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 0:00
Virtually identical position for Dow industrials. Another 36 ticks lower would have hit the 50% and the 100 DMA. Trannies were lagging however, possible heads up there.

NYSE breadth today was not characteristic of an 8% trend day, nor was bid/ask delta or Trin. The Vix was the most negative signal but I like to see everything aligning.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 23:34
Not understanding the point Ashraf making on twitter re SPX.

The move down from 1344 high today kissed 50% ret of the last swing up from 30th Nov low. It spiked through a typical correction level and quickly retreated. Also coincided with the 100 dma so 3 levels make a cluster of potential support. Jury out whether correction finished or back south again.

As to RSI divergences, O/B conditions, CCI, Stochs or whatever I have long since found no value for US stock indices which are a very "special" case !

I read the Nov low as a potential wave 4 of C so the current move down could well be a wave 4 of 5 of C, alternatively something a lot more sinister.

Gammahunter
Douglas, Isle of Man
Posts: 82
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 20:01
daveo ok thankx
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 20:01
As of today gold and silver have both visited typical corrective target areas from their highs but low confidence and would need to see good valid buy signals to be a buyer again.