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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 23, 2009 20:17
Comments: 57
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Yield Curves, FX & LIBOR Trends

Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP.
 
 
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taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 12:19
Hi Ashraf ,
I want to know your comment at the next .
#Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Sept. 22 investors should SELL the euro versus the pound at 90.80 pence.
# Citigroup Inc. said on Sept. 25 it may fall to the lowest level against the Norwegian krone since 1977.
#The pound may fall to $1.54 by the end of the year should the central bank remain indifferent to the currencys decline, according to BNP Paribas SA .
Thanks ,
Taha .
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 9:34
ping, anybody following Aussie for only the past 2 years would notice that interest rate expectations were awfully volatile. one month the market is sure the next move is a hike, only to see one more rate cut (or vice versa). Im not sure the RBA will raise rates at all this year. can you imagine how high aussie will go? careful what they wish for. 72 AUDJPY sounds very plausible if stocks and oil show more downside. AUDUSD has to break 0.8540 first after which i see 0.81

Ashraf
ping
Missouri, United States
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Sep 25, 2009 8:28
Hi Ashraf,

What's your one-month view on Aussie? Could it retrace to 0.80 at the end of October? CitiFX had a sell call on AUD/JPY about a month ago, I think, when AUD/JPY at 78. It projects 70 if oil goes to 60. Do you see that happen in Oct.? Also, if RBA does NOT raise interest rate or refer the possibility of doing that on Oct. 6th, which in my view is highly likely, how big a impact is that? Thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 24, 2009 20:30
houram, Middle East politics have not affected forex in a very very long time. last time that happened was in August 2003.

Ashraf
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
15 years ago
Sep 24, 2009 16:55
Hi Ashraf,
Great analysis, as always. What is your opinion regarding the effects of geopolitics that could heat up in the middle east, would it strengthen the USD? What if crude oil goes up because of the tensions? Will the CAD be strong again?
I hope the tensions will ease, I have many friends there.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 24, 2009 12:56
LIBOR UPDATE:

AS OF TODAY: GBP 3-month LIBOR -20% from Sep 1st vs. -9%, -7% and -13% for EUR, JPY and USD respectively.

Ashraf
poborsky
Torrevieja, Spain
Posts: 7
15 years ago
Sep 24, 2009 10:48
Great analysis.
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