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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 23, 2009 20:17
Comments: 57
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Yield Curves, FX & LIBOR Trends

Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP.
 
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taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Sep 30, 2009 14:27
Hi Ashraf ,
when will we see positive effect at the usd when we see positive us data ? .
Thank you .
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Sep 28, 2009 18:59
Thank you Ashraf .
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 28, 2009 17:48
taha, again, i HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT YOUR MARGIN TOLERANCE THEREFORE I CANNOT TELL YOU WHEN TO HOLD AND WHEN TO LET GO. But from a strict price perspective, i see decent chance for cable to retest 1.5800. yet, we could still see 1.5950s before that.

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Sep 28, 2009 12:40
Hi Ashraf ,
I sold the Gbp versus Usd at 1.5850 . Which level do you recommend to take the profit or stop loss ? .
Thank you .
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 28, 2009 2:09
faustroll, nobody wants a fast selloff in the US dollar. They (US and rest) will try to talk it up or at least slwodown the rate of selling (they will succeed temporarily) but i told people in this site on the many ways they could take advantage of each signal for buying USD and JPY and that's what people have been doing (hopefully) these past 4 trading days. technically, theres room for another 3% rise in USDX.

Ashraf
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 21:36
Hi Ashraf,
Would there be any impact on Oil prices with hightening of tensions with Iran?
Was
faustroll
Connecticut, United States
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 18:58
Please excuse the extra i in your name, which is perhaps not the worst sin, because it is a Romanization in any case that could have some variance?
faustroll
Connecticut, United States
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 18:57
Nicely done as always Ashraif,

I like your emphasis on the systemic and policy-driven, as well as market, pressures on the USD. If policy makers see the threat of de-risking on the short term horizon, they may be less concerned with the short term downdraft in the dollar, and in fact may welcome it as de-risking should or could make for upward movement in the dollar?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 18:11
taha, BNP has been very bearish GBP for a while. In April they said GBPUSD will fall to 1.20. i see 1.52, 1.50. NOK strength to that extend remains a medium term play.
Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 27, 2009 18:05
my end of year is $1.48 but will weaken into first quarter of 2010 with $1.30 as a target due to BoE's stance to weaken pound, fed rising rates earlier and deflation in short term. also stocks have reached target and very likely to fall quite a bit from here along with commodities.
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