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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 19, 2009 21:57
Comments: 315
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil Weakness May Intensify

Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
 
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14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
14 years ago
Dec 9, 2009 22:57
Ashraf,
I had two shorts in oil....One just cut at $71 exact but another one waiting for $69 (both NYMEX current).Can we expect somebounce if it got support near $68-69?ohh....you are now very close to my hometown Kolkata (india).Have a great and successful trip there.
Regards,
Rajib.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 9, 2009 19:30
Everyone, thats case of oil contango when forward contract rises markedky over the nearer contract but cannoty see the reason. Im in a busy travel schedule and cannot answer all your questions but do watch out from a temporary pop higher in oil. Just look at theoil chart in this article.

I spoke in length about using the DUG etf as a way to gain from falling oil. correlation is faily strong but you do need a decline of at least $3 to see some real movement.

Ashraf
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
14 years ago
Dec 9, 2009 19:08
Hi Ashraf,
Congrats,Oil fell as you perdicted and EURYEN going down as per your forecast.
Excellent.
mckinnovation
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 49
14 years ago
Dec 9, 2009 17:39
Hi Lads, Could anybody please help me understand what happened on crude oil today after inventory reading? Is dollar strength/ risk aversion main factor for that huge drop right at 16:00gmt??
I still managed to finish oil trading for the day in 100 pips profit but do not understand what happened afterwards and thats most important. Thx a million :)
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 22:47
Ashraf,

Can you please explain why there's a difference of $2 b/w CRUDE Jan & Feb contracts, compared to a less-than-$1 difference b/w the BRENT Jan & Feb contracts?

One reason could be the fundamental difference b/w their benchmarking, but then again, they're both oils! Or perhaps, they're expecting some disruption in WTI supplies b/w J & F, compared to smooth Brent supplies?

Don't know...


Asad
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 21:47
not sure why ? hopefully someone can explain
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 21:37
NZ,

Touch wood man! :) I was JUST noticing this before visiting this site to read your comment. While it's NOT unusual...it's a wee bit uncomfortable? Surprisingly, the difference b/w the Brent Feb & Jan contracts is pretty tight - ə! Any explanation?


Asad


P.S. I've closed majority of my shorts at 72.70. I'm keeping a few to test the 70.50 mark.

P.P.S. Ashraf, I asked previously about your experience of correlation b/w DUG and crude. Thanks!
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 20:37
difference between feb and Jan contract on oil has been creeping above $2. shorts better be careful now. USD strength may not weaken crude further.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 17:57
Oil,

You BEAUTY!!


Happy, :)

Asad
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 14:49
Karan, my view on oil has not changed. big break after falling consolidation is a pattern thats very much alive. See my article from OCTOBER 22. Oil's 55-day MA is now severely broken and 70 is matter of time.

Ashraf
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