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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 13, 2009 15:13
Comments: 41
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Here Comes the 2-Month Cycle

Stocks could be in for a fresh 2-month rally, in line with the pattern of the past 12 months.
 
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FL
GuangZhou, China
Posts: 14
15 years ago
Mar 18, 2009 6:33
hi Ashraf,

what do you thing EUR/USD Whether to have certain variable for Tonight.
NY time close 1.3 Place above but Has not been able to attack 100MA. If FED Has mentions Purchase national debt Then Stock market Response Must be expected to rise Looks at high one Which is 1.3350, but ECB President If the publication speech are temperate Can affect the market Thus suppresses EUR/USD Receding.
looking Listens to your suggestion.

Thanks
isi
marbella, Spain
Posts: 4
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 18:31
2 month rally or until the next set of figures that will spook the markets again? Will it be the 1Q 2009 results or another big company that runs out of cash or one of the many countries on the brink, needing international help? It may well coincide with a 2 month relief period where markets rally. Until the deleveraging period works it way through and we clean out of the system all the toxic assetsof years of unchecked excesses, there will be false rallies, only to be brought down to realistic levels again and again. After a week of rally and rise of 10-20% in markets, it must be a brave man that puts money down for the next 7 weeks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 16:33
Hi Justin, technically, EURAUD is not so easy to read, but i find a negative bias towards 1.93. Again, buying the aussie is best done against AUD, JPY and CHF.

Ashraf
Justin
Hong Kong
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 13:38
Hi Ashraf,

I agree the 2-month cycle. If that's the case, EUR/AUD may trend lower to 1.9366 and 1.90 level?

Thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 13:32
Rob, EURJPY and EURCAD are both looking good. Let's first get to 133 yen then re-evaluate. we're more likely to get to 1.35 in EURUSD than 135 in EURJPY.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 13:15
Hi Ashraf,

How about the EUR/JPY? That seems to have no resistance whatsoever. It's been rising steadily since the end of January. Do you have targets for EUR/JPY - 140.00 (slight exaggeration) wouldn't surprise me by the end of this month at this point. Thanks a lot!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 9:22
KARM, I still stick by my gold analysis of the HotCHart from 2 weeks ago showing a rising channel at the 890 support, targetting 1050. Considering my expectations for a gradual tempprary bounce in stocks along with further struggle in the dollar, I'd say thats good for gold. ALSO CONSIDER silver.

SORANS,
im no expert with CHina, but Shanghai composite is already up 17% YTD, so i dont think it will be able to rise past the 2320 level, which is a very solid resistance.

Ashraf
sorans
beijing, China
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2009 2:35
hi Ashraf,
Thanks for your passage, I am in China and focus on China stock market, so how do you see the chinese stock market, shanghai index now is 2100-2150,do you think it will up to 2500 before April or down to 1800? thanks @!@
Karm
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 15, 2009 21:48
Ashraf, Karm here - I came to a seminar a couple of weeks ago, it was greatly insightful. I am out of Gold trade but considering re-entering on the back of last weeks rally, its hovering at 930, question is whether it will make a run for 1000 or fall below 900 this week.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 13, 2009 17:58
H Rob,

well, usually improved risk appetite has always helped gold. I would think it only undermines gold if financial stocks were the ONLY sector rallying...as they previously helped gold when they fell hard. Bottom line: as ling as 890 is held, gold will be fine. Im still owning it. as matter of fact, i bought silver last week.

Ashraf
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