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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Lifaylon
Muscat, Oman
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 14:52
EUR shall stay in Range with topside 1.3260 topside max for Taday
Even that i doubt for Day
1.3245-50 is max i expect b4 close
Lifaylon
Muscat, Oman
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 14:50
GBP seems more predictable than EUR
The swing is far more defined with 15890 low-side with 15955 top-side
Shortly yesterday top will be broken 15966 will be taken-out to test 15985 b4 close today
nido
karachi, Pakistan
Posts: 23
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 14:25
Euo eyeing 1.35 then 1.38
trend is change now
bulls are come
thnx
Frog
Paris, France
Posts: 28
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 14:22
Hello guys, here is something you'd better read :
http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/ING.pdf

That's worth it !
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 12:11
128 SHOULD HOLD STRONG SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FOR EURO FOR NOW. BUT THAT SAID 133.50 IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL IF BROKERED WILL ASSUME 135 OVER MARKET SENTIMENT WHICH WILL TAKE SOME BUYER MONEY TO PRECIEVE SELL SUPPORT LEVELS AGAIN. THIS MAY HAPPEN QUICK AND FAST AND THEN REVERSE OR STAY CONTINOUS.

MEANWHILE 160 FOR CABLE HOLDS AS A FIRM RESISTANCE THAT WILL NOT BREAK FOR NOW.

IF I KEEP THINGS SIMPLE I CAN VERY EASY TO SHORT AND HOLD POUND FOR 155/154 THAT WE WILL HIT BY NEXT MONTH. UP SIDE IS LIMITED LIKE WISE LOOK FOR 128 SUPPORT FOR EURO AGAIN. NFP THIS WEEK.
Lifaylon
Muscat, Oman
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 11:51
Hold long on Euro
It will shoot to sucessfully touch 1.3430 b4 a correction can set in
This can happen this week itself
if all parameters and news out of US supportive
Pound moving to take out 1.5630 levels today
Can move another 200pips upside this week b4 a correction
cheers
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 11:46
jamsched
i don't attribute the lifeboat image to China....
China has not succeeded in reducing its dependency on exports and its domestic markets cannot sustain itself... China MUST create some x million of NEW JOBS every year ... their subsidies of roughly USD 600 bln failed to achieve this politically extremely important goal ... futheron investors look only at the few propering cities but never at the rural areas where 70% of China's population lives. There is a big social bomb ticking ... and they are all communists keep that in mind
i am very cautious with bets on China
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 11:18
sub, i havent moved the goal posts. back in May i was calling for 1.15, then in end of June i called for an immediate target of 1.17 and we missed that by some 50 pips. Now i call the euro rally to dissipate at around 1.33. when i say theres 70% chance for 1.2770 by end of Q4, it means that thers a strong chance we would have hit 1.2770 by end of Q4 and NOT that necessarily it will BE there at end of Q4. look for risk aversion and soverign concern to re-escalate in early Q4 that will take down EUR back to below 1.20. This euro rebound has especially been boosted by the negative US data and resulting Fed rehtoric.


Ashraf
jamshed
Pakistan
Posts: 57
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 11:15

Any more Euro shorts out there?

Euro will keep rising until all shorts are done with

The prospect of QE is huge for the US
This is driven by slowdown in consumer spending and phase out of the stimulus packages
Double dip / deflation is serious

corporations are rational - making good profits but not hiring and hoarding cash for tax hikes and more contractions

Ben and Co are going to get in the groove - couple of more monthly negative employment reports needed

On the other side, Trichet is taking the "anti inflationary policies" stance. As if he has many other options.


I think the Dollar could end aronud 1.5 by end 2010.
However, this is not much

What would amount to be big would be a short and hard landing for the dollar when global central banks readjust their hoardings.


China is the only credible force in the market who can adjust the dollar or euro rates and prevent a free fall as seen recently in the Euro reversal.

What stands in between a big Dollar fall and continued slow "talked down" depreciation of the dollar is China.


sub
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 3, 2010 11:07
ashraf,
have you now thrown in the towel on 117 for euro? you say 70% chance of 12770 by end of Q4. Does that mean the goalposts have changed by 10 big figures?
Good call on 13250, but how much higher from here in your opinion?