EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
You're right. Too risky to short oil given the geo-political backdrop. It could go vertical if chaos in Egypt and most importantly in Suez disrupts oil deliveries. Besides the problem in Egypt is not just Suez. The more deeper problem is that Egypt is a key US ally in the region and is one of only two countries in the region which has signed peace treaty with Israel (the other being Jordan). So if a new regime in Egypt is not so friendly to US and Israel, then the fragile balance in the region could be disrupted.
Moreover, have in mind that the Saudi king's health problems has escalated and as some analysts mentioned, this time the transition of power in Saudi Arabia may not be smooth. So this is another oil positive.
So I will also be very very careful if I decide to open short positions in oil.
GL.
I too acknowledged I was a bit aggressive and that is why I appologized to Ashraf before TG comments and just after I made the comments to Ashraf. So I think after all is said and done, this case is closed.
Re: oil/WTI
I concur that Egypt story will most probably have a temp abating early next week and oil/gold will again fall and I plan to load at 85 (WTI) and 1300-1323 (gold) if I have the chance.
As I wrote late last week the sentiment data (COT, etc.) is more constructive for gold as the COT report for oil is too complacent. So be careful about that.
Good luck.
For aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall my gut, experience and foresight, I believe we've missed a golden ride. :(
I'm a perma-bear, right? This perma-bear, (self-proclaimed) King of Crude *jk* thinks we've missed a royal set-up from 84 - 100, just because some buggers wish to replace their Le King? (How selfish can I get? *heheh*). ;)
Because many big boys missed the ride from 85 - 90, I reckon they'll drag it down to near 85 (if the politics of it allows) and then take it from there. hey, that's how they work, right?
If oil exceeds 90 tomorrow, I'l open half a positon short w/ successive stop losses. make sure you get your stop losses in place, because again, it stops losses... :D
Asad
I've been following your debate w/ some interest now. Both of you make good points...albeit, in a very poor manner!
Boli, what you've written over the week re/ Ashraf may/maynot be right/wrong...but the point is that the WAY in which you wrote a bit wrong, even aggressive. Tht's the reason why, even if you write, 1+1=2...people won't believe to you.
Most of the time, it DOESN'T matter WHAT you say...rather HOW you say, matters. If this wasn't true, there wouldn't have been a Bernie Madoff or Goldman Sachs (sorry, Gunjack - you're still a mate *winks*). See...even Gunjack - a wicked Goldmanite to the core - is smiling (otherwise he would've taken my head off) JUST because of the HOW I wrote it. :p
As for Ashraf, I'm MERELY grateful for just being on this Forum! He's definitely one of the world's top-three analysts. If I'd give my right kidney for being at Goldman, I'd give my left for seeking his advice. Even if we haven't exchanged hiiissss in monthsssss, I can still seek people like Messr. Gunjack, DaveO, Tommy, Rocky, Scooter and Jamie to set up my trades.
Above everything, neither I'm paying Ashraf for his advice, not is he paying me to stay stuck on this Forum... :)
Asad
Better stop this crying about Ashraf. Many other people here (including subway, lisa, putko among others) pointed out that Ashraf is acting a little bit stubborn. For example his EURUSD call - when EUR showed strength and climbed, Ashraf still insisted that EUR is goingo to 1.27 and lower, while the above mentioned persons (incl. me - see my posts) wrote that EUR is most probably on its way up (and that is what happened). However Ashraf did not admit his miskake until EUR was above 1.3500.
As for the SP500, when he called a market top just below 1200, I wrote here that SP500 is going to 1250 and above 1300 (and that happened). I do not remembre Ashraf to have corrected his call. And now when SP500 fell 25 points on Fri from the top, he suddenly comes out and brags he has foreseen this. But he do not mention anything about his 1200 top call. So a person could question his current call. As many were questioning hus AUDUSD call when AUD relentlessly climbed when Ashraf expected AUD to fall.
So my point is: it is not strange for a person to make mistakes. However it is no good when he "forgets" about his mistakes but brags his correct calls as this is damaging his track record.
I hope this soothes your anger.
And again wishing you goo luck!
So you shared your take that the mkt would not correct at 1200? and wrote on that matter!
The way you pointed out was not as contructive critism but in a self-rigtheous manner trying to be one up manner.... just as what you said I did not beleive the mkt would correct at 1200... More importantly what was Ashraf's response to your "critism"?
I dunno whether we see - not witness- an US orchestrated geo politics game. Whenever middle east is involved it is about petrodollar. The Iraq war protestors got that wrong Bush didn't go for oil but for the price of oil. US has withdrawn troops from Iraq US has not permitted
Israel preemptive strike on Iran....thus the Saudi family and the Kuwaities stand naked.
We can then spin a series of rational conclusions ( scholary term : consistent) which i spare here
as these would appear just as the opposite , inconsistent.
But it comes up to one result: Saudia arabia and China must buy US T .