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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Dec 16, 2008 19:32
Comments: 14
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Zero-Bound Fed Breaks Dollar

The Fed's shift to a range-driven fed funds target intensifies the yield assault to the world's main reserve currency.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Dec 18, 2008 15:09
BRENDAN,
We have seen this before. GBP rallies on the misfortune of other currencies such as USDs broadening yield damage and JPYs sell-off on the face of improved equities. But the UK fundamentals are clearly worsening from structural and yield perspective. $1.47 is expected to resurface as early as January, with the lows emerging near $1.40 in mid Q1.

FRANCIS,
They could THREATEN to itervene these next 2 weeks. And may even actually do it overtly. But Im unsure whether any intervention is sustained. BoJ rate cut is also possible.Here's an article I wrote back in October about the yen. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/yen-path-of-least-resistance.asp

DAVE, Yes, and yes. But the dollar rebound vs EUR will be more modest than that vs GBP.

Ashraf

Dave
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 18, 2008 6:18
HI Ashraf,

on your comment "Although we may see the biggest monthly rally in EURUSD, there needs to be some retreat towards $1.28-1.30 but no more. "
are you saying that there is unlikely to have retracement to 1.28 - 1.30?

Do you foresee USD to strengthen with the rest of central bank cutting rates like ECB?

thanks! dave!
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 18, 2008 5:40
Hi Ashraf,

USD/JPY it's Already Arrival 87 Nearby yesterday, this Friday (BOJ) will cut rate chance

at the same time Japanese government have Mention Intervention, so wannt to know

your Advise. Whether May Establishment Buying up chance for the short or longterm?

or when the rate down 85

Thanks,

Francis
Brendan
forexandbinary.com, Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 18, 2008 2:15
Do you think GBPUSD will go lower in the environment of US dollar weakness?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Dec 18, 2008 0:05
Ed,
Although we may see the biggest monthly rally in EURUSD, there needs to be some retreat towards $1.28-1.30 but no more.

Brendan,
Your point is well taken about comms underperforming gold. Teh gold rally right now is ONLY USD and FED-driven. Once global growth picks up, We'll see $1000 before one can say r-e-f-l-a-t-i-o-n.

Steve,
AUDJPY 62.25 target remains intact. Weekly trend line resistance at 63.50

Good Luck and Good Trades

Ashraf


Brendan
forexandbinary.com, Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 17, 2008 18:03
Ashraf, thanks for replying me question. I am not as optimistic as you on commodities (industrial metals, agriculture and energy). Gold is a different story.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 17, 2008 17:26
Ashraf,

This aud/jpy can hit target 62.25? Advise pls.
Ed
South Carolina, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 17, 2008 17:02
Ashraf,

Great article, what is your new year-end target for the Eur/USD, and do you still see a dollar-positive correction early next year?

Thanks,

Ed
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Dec 17, 2008 13:22
Brendan, I am still bullish in commodities. As central banks start defying history and taking the cost of fiat money to zero, it will unleash another powerful rally in commodities. With gold having been at around $800 and oil at $45 when the world economy fell on its knees, don't you think that these will be much higher at the first signs of a recovery?

Ashraf
Brendan
forexandbinary.com, Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 17, 2008 5:28
I just finished reading the chapter on Commodities Supercycles and Currencies. You were bullish on copper and oil. With this financial crisis, commodity prices had plunged by more than 50%, are you still bullish on commodities?