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Oil Weakness May Intensify
Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
Thanks for your view. I know ashraf is in Singapore. Unfortunately I'm in Nigeria....
Good luck with your trade! I just booked my profit. Sold oil @ 80.
Rgds,
Karan
Btw...the way USD's gaining momentum...and w/ commodities collapsing in general...it seems that we're heading towards 70. I'm short as well...so hoping to make it look good.
I believe some EIA data's around the corner, so let's see how the market reacts. But generally, the market looks weak. Ashraf, I think, provided a support level of 75.60 (?), which too has been breached...so the technicals are also pointing weaker. But let's see what the man says...
Asad
Look out of the window & you'll see Ashraf - he's in Singapore!!!
Asad
Any views on oil for the week?
Rgds,
Karan
I can't seem to shrug off my reputation as an innate oil bear, can I? :) Just because my presence on this Forum coincides w/ irrational oil pricing doesn't mean that I hold it against the commodity. There certainly have been times when I've been bullish on oil & traded in that direction (but then fundamentals have justified an upward movement).
Surely, I'll try not to get bitten - I've got decent RM in place. But when you say 2010, what precisely do you mean? 2010 is a huge timeframe in terms of pricing. Price at the Chinese NY could be completely different from that during September. The average, yes, will be much higher than now (but do you expect me to still stay short as we move along? *smiles*)...but that price level would be justified (as you correctly stated) by economic recovery (unlike now).
Beyond 2010, certainly...oil has a great future! Remember we had that debate about the dependency of ~7000 industrial processes on oil (& its limited supply)? That alone justifies the commodity's future. But in the near term, we're seeing a dip (even if we go by your assumption of a stronger USD)...
Asad
But dollar has weakend on interest rate differential expectations which may result in the market revising the FEDs rise in interest rates to be earlier than initial expected. This would cause investors to move away from gold especially as it offerers ZERO interest and is highly volatile as we saw friday. Also it may cause a carry trade unwind away from the dollar and very possibly back in to the yen.
The whole world wants a strong dollar including china. BNP paribas believed dollar will rise for 2 years in rapid FED hikes and liquidity withdrawal. USD target of 80 by dec end.
Asad, your oil shorting will bite you hard as fundamentals are starting to look much better for oil for 2010 anyway. Economic recovery means higher oil demand and prices as you know.
It is however too soon to make any firm prediction but I do think gold is overpriced and will not higher than 1250 this year for sure.
We can easily get a rising dollar with flat to small gains on stocks.
"In case you're craving for more, I've heard there are some pretty good gay bars here in London. Those folks'll give you pretty good 'attention'!"
@Asad don't go down the line of bigotry, because if I was to start you have far more to lose than me.
I have traded for over 17yrs in the City and NY, and have come across imbeciles like you many a time, and remember what I said in my earlier post moron I don't need to trade or work any more, as unlike you I worked on the buy side for many a year and we treated your sell side desk jockeys at JPM with contempt, all the time laughing at their desperate attempts to woo us.
Your Gay bar comment did make me chuckle, look if you really want me to come and meet you and your family at your house no need to refer to it as a GAY bar, no need for euphemism's is there?
...and the credit does to you for writing up this analysis (whichever way you look at it)... :p
Asad
raj, the oil chart in this article remains valid.
WATCH THE 200-WEEK AVERAGE, FORMERLY A KEY RESISTANCE, NOW A BIG SUPPORT.
Ashraf