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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 10:46
No need to worry . The charts contain all data also future data. That is the hard science of astrology. Unfortunately , using only financial mathematics and neither tealeafs nor coin flipping
it is as clear as possible Euro has no chance to survive.
Duva
Sweden
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 10:34
Regarding ECB rate hikes and withdrawal of non-standard measures, there are a couple of points I think should be stated

The ECB's primary mandate is price stability and when watching JCT on the monthly PC during the last months (say from Nov), it is clear that he personally feels very satisfied with the track record the ECB has achieved during his term in office. He will not risk this record during his final 6 months in office!

There is also the move towards making the individual countries responsible for providing their banks with cash. The Irish CB has increased their lending using a rule that allows them to create cash, subject to ECB approval. Spain has also gotten the message and are leaning heavily on their regional/local banks.

The ECB has also learned the lesson that if they make a problem go away from the headline news, politicians will treat it as if it was solved. I'm referring to the purchasing of peripheral bonds. There has been signals from the ECB that they want to unload the 70B or so of bonds from their balance sheet and indirect that there is a limit on how much the ECB can/will hold. The political camp has been mute on this aspect but instead transformed the ECB proposal that the ESFS should by the ECB holdings to one where the ESFS funds should be used to buy more bonds from the market (Lesson: never provide a "how" to a "what" since your "how" will be stolen to solve another "what".)

In sum, JCT & the ECB are moving towards a position that the situation is, or should be, normalizing and that the political camp is responsible for that to happen - it is a sort of a fait accompli play and a rather sharp move for a non-political body...

I realize that I'm really wading in deep here with this first post, but the aspects that I bring up have not been discussed much in this forum.
badnewz
london, UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 9:30
Morning all,

So the big question remains - is Portugal now in line for a bailout?

At the moment I consider this a profit-taking correction in the Euro, but technicals are limited given the significance of the political programme, leading upto 24-25 March EU conference.

If Portugal blows up before then, it becomes another firestorming session, trying to save the euro.

If not, expect more rate hike talk which will boost the euro, UNLESS we get hawkish talk from the FED.

Place your bets...
New Pip
birmingham, UK
Posts: 84
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 7:48
Subz

Thanks for your post with the sup/res on the Eur/Usd
New Pip
birmingham, UK
Posts: 84
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 7:47
Klondike

thanks for posting some good pointers. I'm been in silver catching the dips, but will be holding out now. The fundamentals still point to higher ground, as soon there will be a fall in the indices hopefully propping Silver. I'm sidelined

Eur/Usd - I have gone long at 1.3898
jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 6:04
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Klondike
Idaho , United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 2:47
I also believe the threat of interest rate hikes is a warning and meant to put pressure on Greece and Portugal to get things worked out, now!
Klondike
Idaho , United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 2:21
New pip
Not sure of all the why's on the euro but timing seems right for a 38.2% retracement of the move from 1.3426. Sold half my position at 1.3862. May not happen but holding the rest for a full 38%. I believe the interest rate hike threat could backfire on them but who knows when exactly?
Watching dollar gold and silver, not sure about euro gold. Should be watching that. Gold is not really down (nor it's sister silver) really. Just seeking some equilibrium after the run from 130?5. They're consolidating. Silver is affected by the U.S. stock markets and by gold. S&P 500 has also been in consolidation, triangular boundaries started at around 1340 and 1292. Getting tighter.

I remember from my youth hearing of China's old love affair for silver. I suspect, with inflation threats there is a rekindling of that affair. Increased demand in the world from a well deserved lack of trust in governments and central bankers is the real demand, and now greed. Quite a volatile mixture. Throw in some fear.

Not saying either will break out higher, though I do favor that notion. There are large numbers of amateurs also piling into silver simply because it's one of the things showing a strong move. I do not favor being in with them for very long periods. But hey! Just like the forex markets, there's more where those came from(sic). Personally I take a lot of advice in the Euro forum from folks like Subway and Ignore.
subway90
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Mar 9, 2011 1:37
still expecting Euro to test 3830/50 level b4 rebound could take place.... only move above 3924 would see Euro rally back up to 3990/4000 level...

current downmove considered a minor correction and rally from 3428 level would still have 1 more leg higher to 4150 level with possible extension to 4200.... only clear break and close below 3800 level would risk further selloff to 3690/3700 level...

still the same view...

correction down to 3830/50 then move higher to 4150 level to complete wave from 3428 low...
expecting bigger correction afterwards to 3700/3750...

gl/gt
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
12 years ago
Mar 8, 2011 22:18