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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1557
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
taniral
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 33
10 years ago
Mar 21, 2010 2:33
Mr Laidi,

After late march/early april expectation of USDJPY hitting 92, you mentioned of losses below 88 level to come. Just to clarify is it below 88 or below the 80 level as per what you replied to me 2 weeks back as copied below. Thank you for your time.

"Taniral, i dont see it below 87.40 in the current downleg. but below 80 sometime in Q3. "

Ashraf
mandiwie
kartitsch, Austria
Posts: 69
10 years ago
Mar 20, 2010 17:36

Dollar May Drop on Japan’s Holiday ‘Jinx,’ Credit Agricole Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aL6WwgwuhYVs
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 23:39
Ashraf 2 things Japan on holiday this monday (vernal equinox) so will have less than normal volume, secondly, yen repatriatrion should lead to yen strengthening not weakening as japanese companies earn in dollars etc which they sell to convert back into yen at end of fiscal year. Now it is a different thing to suggest that this effect may not be so strong this year. Jan was a very good month for exports but Feb with Toyota debacle likely was not. Nevertheless, it is very very strange why usd/jpy is trading at these low levels with equities at their highs ..it is another divergence along with poor performance of aud/usd, divergences between DJIA (this being most bullish with more retail investors) , RUT2k and SPX ...and between emerging markets (MCSI) which have not regained Jan highs. These are warning signs to me and those waiting to buy on pullback may find markets pullback further than they thought
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 22:56
nishel, main reason i see USDJPY upside is post-fiscal year repatriation. So maybe i need to change my assessment and say 92 in late March early April and not mid March. then i see renewed losses below 88 coming up around end of summer.

Ashraf
dhussey
United States
Posts: 22
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 19:04
Xaron I agree- I think 90 is cheap... I have been looking at some monthly charts comparing SPX and USD/JPY through the last recession, and I believe the two really rallied together once the SPX broke its 50% retracement- anyone else have analysis supporting a USD/JPY long?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
10 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 9:44
FXHANDLER
YES UNDER THE NAME QUASARNR1
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2010 23:30
Said. Thanks, but I am trading JPY/NOK
Hope to get another entrance at 6.60, sell it and let run to 6.35
I am sure to see this pair under 6.0 before summer. Sell the tops...
Said, are you on twitter?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2010 19:49
@fxhandler

USDNOK AT 5.50-54
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2010 12:40
Everything below 95 is cheap to me, everything below 90 is just insane...
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
10 years ago
Mar 18, 2010 12:40
USD/JPY is a strong buy below 90 (and around).