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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 18:47
i dont think tomorrows election will play a great role on the near term price for sterling as investors are focussed more on economic/financial data at present as opposed to political issues at present.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 12:44
@Ashraf whats your view on gilts post Gen election...thx
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 12:37
@Catnip: Thanks for the response; thought-provoking, as ever.

@Forum: More generally on the UK/GBP, Moneyweek is having a blast at QE & central banks:
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/money-morning-central-banks-bubble-01806.aspx

[BTW, I'm not necessarily endorsing their conclusions; interesting analysis though].
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 11:51
Agreed but i don't buy the argument politically impossible. The euro has been politically impossible as well. basically most of political decisions are politically impossible and yet are imposed.
We have the same with irrational markets. Not the markets are irrational but the model of market is irrational.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 11:01
@Catnip: Not sure I understand all your points, but what I am saying is that for the UK to enter the Euro, even a reformed Euro, is politically impossible here, however much logic or economic sense might be behind it. Even Clegg, probably the most Euro-friendly leader (and the LibDems have always been the most pro-EU) would not try to go for it (and I doubt if he could get it through if he tried).

If by "vote" you are talking about referendums....well, UK politicians hate referendums. They trust the electorate even less than they trust each other....the electorate might come up with the "wrong" answer, so I don't see one in the foreseeable future. It is simply not on the agenda these days.

Interesting points about bank debt. (Needless to say, not mentioned in the election campaign :) ).

@Dodger: "Club Med" - LOL! :-)))
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 9:53
Woooo! Catnip very bold predictions back there and you could well be right,however the club med have done a very good job as ballast to stop the Bundesbank based euro rising too high in the past.If you take the strong euro countries let alone bring in the brits you end up with a supercurrency that could rapidly face the problems the yen faced of outpricing its own production.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 20:56
Scanned debt relations. German banks are the biggest debtees to UK , UK owes USD 501 bln to german banks . Spain is indebted with USD 238 bln , Greece with a mere USD 45 bln.
So a monetary union EUR new /GBP is not a bad idea. A reverse split of debt.
forextrader
vologda, Russia
Posts: 127
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 19:42
GBP/CHF is very bullish, I see 1.87 as a realistic long term target ( Bollinger band is wide open no major resistance before 1.7150) the same applies to Euro/GBP i.e very bearish

Dima
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 17:22
No one in Eurozone was asked to vote for or against into of eur...why should that be different in UK?
I mean those who could vote voted against and believe it or not there are, in every administration, at least two who are capable of drawing simple conclusions from sufficiently simple events... so no vote in UK.

Now take a close look at UK gilt yields. What do you see? A miracle? Don't tell me it has anything to do
with polls for election
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 4, 2010 16:52
Wish I could share in that excellent German (not for export) wine you are drinking @Catnip :-)
There is absolutely no way that any of our current politicians would enter the Euro, mark I or mark II.

If you read the UK commentators, they are saying, "yes, we are in the dickens of a mess - don't know how to fill the deficit - but, thank heavens at least we are not in the Euro ....".


But just say, what if: No way we can compete with Germany in industrial/export terms (would be could if we could at least attempt to). If we could pull it off, it would be good, but probably, it would just end in tears, from a UK-centric point of view.
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