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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 18:51
USDCAD chart from wednesday, respected the retracements, http://chart.ly/mec6b8


fell to hit 1.0150
extended to 1.01
Rebounded back above 1.0280 retracment --61.8% retracememt. so theres ground half way towards 1.0330 but unlikely to break avove 1.04.


Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 11:23
chloe,

JOB REPORTS FROM CANADA & US due in today. Canada (11:00 GMT) July employment exp +10K from 93K, unemp rate exp unchanged at 7.9%. Considering that the 93K rise was the second highest on record, A rise of 10-20K would be positive for CAD especially if the unemployment rate remains at 7.9%. USDCAD eyes a recovery above 1.02, but any rebound subsequent rebound is seen capped at 1.0250 until the release of the US jobs report, which could alter the risk picture. The 1.01 support remains valid for now, unless both US and CAD reports surprise on the upside.

Ashraf
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 23:15
hi ashraf... will u be weighn in on tomor data(cad&usd) before its release,im kinda loss on some of the correlations out there,an really not sure how its gonna quite play out..im thinkn us data will trump any cad data,but not sure about gold&eur..crude...some of ur thought would be greatly appreciated ..ok thanks an gl tomor:)
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 20:48
I think it could break that line if the US tanks tomorrow on the jobs report, the Aussie can periodically be a proxy for the US market, and at those times seems influenced by it even beyond commodities like wheat, copper, gold. There are days it tracks the US amazingly well, we will see how tomorrow unfolds.
rrose
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 20:43
here
rrose
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 20:42
could the aud break this line
Pipster
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 16:05
Hi Ashraf

Is Eur/Gbp still on track to go down - are there any concerns, that you may have with this pair in changing its direction

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 14:23
Highest jobless claims since Apr bad for stocks, bad job figures in NZ negative for NZD, hence NZDJPY nearing 62 as per my previous tweets






Ashraf
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 9:38
Ashraf, I fully agree that going long aussie at this stage is a very bad r:r. However, in my experience AUS fundamentals are always* trumped by risk appetite and the lure of the carry. Thus, until some bad news come to light that would prompt an equity sell-off, I don't really see a plunge in aussie. When it will happen, the down-move will be as vicious as aggravating this AUD rally is. But until then AUDUSD could retest .94 for all the dashing optimism out there.

*always meaning certainty in a statistical sense
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 23:57
AUDNZD is up 110 pips after NZ unemployment shoots up to 6.8% from 6.4%, now surpassing the 1.2570 target, eyeing 1.2630

Ashraf
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