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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 6, 2011 23:09
Comments: 15
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Another Bullish Argument for Metals?

Gold & silver may find a fresh source of bullishness from Eurozone debt concerns if the "Greece Exit" story bears weigh. And QE2 has yet to be extended.
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
10 years ago
May 8, 2011 9:39
I watch both RTS and MICEX. RTS index is traded in USD and MICEX is traded in ruble.
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
May 8, 2011 0:53
@Qiman. I agree the silver fall was nothing to do with Bin Laden news and let's face it, traders would have to be in cloud cookoo land to think the exit of Bin Laden will make any difference to terrorist activities. If anything, terrorism could momentarily increase.

Silver was parabolic and I warned more than once in the forum that moves like that lacking structure most always fully retrace with equal ferocity. I could site many examples. Tracking gold told me a turning point was close at hand and when gold turns silver follows direction. It was all in the forum well in advance for anyone paying attention. No surprises to me whatsoever. Study of market profile will verify what I am saying. Of course after the event everyone and their dog jumps for explanations but it was all in the charts and adequately documented. Your theory about thin liquidy may well have powered the initial move.

@catOnip. Can you please give my your symbol for the Russian stock index you watch. I have heard you mention this before and its very interesting. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
10 years ago
May 7, 2011 21:37
Have we wondered why they raise margin requirements on an instrument in which household investors have bought rather than something like oil, which remains out of their reach... relatively speaking?

Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
10 years ago
May 7, 2011 20:41
What does it need to kill a speculative rally?
a. hike margin
b. close credit spigot

Of course the fundamentals for gold remain intact... but not now. Very important is the continued drop in UST yields. Inflation is not a concern now. This is not supportive for gold.
There could be margin hikes for crude coming.
So what is the point? The FED wants UST to be bought. They may be able to reduce their
portfolio of UST. This is pro USD and anti gold ( and bad for stocks and commodities) .
I always watch russian stocks index realtime. Russian stocks are 100% USD hedge.
When this index continuously falls you can be 100% sure USDx will go up before it goes up.
And commodities will drop before they drop.
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
May 7, 2011 17:49
Thanks for this article, and I agree that the fundamentals for gold remain intact.

Regarding the start of the silver crash, the 3rd silver margin increase was announced Thursday and already known to the market Friday April 29th, and didn't have as big of an immediate impact as some would have expected, there could have been major liquidation that day, but not so much happened. As I posted elsewhere in the forum, the sell off in silver started within a few minutes of the Globex open on Sunday evening here in the US, it was a classic large move (perhaps a speculative attack) greatly aided by a typically thin holiday session with several countries closed. And once it got rolling many stops were probably triggered, with prices diving 12% in 11 minutes and only 6,000 silver futures contracts were traded in that time!

The Bin Laden news didn't even hit the headlines until a few hours later.