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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 27, 2009 7:37
jack, the reason to dollar strength is primarily risk aversion prompting funds to go into safer US treasuries. The negative correlation between USD and stocks is widely documented in Chapter 5 of my book. Chapter 5 "Risk Appetite in the Markets" is the first chapter with as much a 25 pages of examples and illustrations detailing risk appetite, equities, VIX and FX.

Central bank gold sales are contributing to capping gold, but since I expect equities to come increased under pressure in about 2 weeks, gold and silver are already eyeing my $920 and $13.10 target from last week.

Ashraf
Jack
Sydney, Australia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 26, 2009 2:39
Ashraf,

enjoy ur TV appearances. I have three qns for u...

A. I am trying to understand the dollar strength conundrum, and i dont have an answer. Do you ?
B. Why doest Gold perform despite so much paper buying flared by FED.
C. What's the impact of IMF selling on the price of gold. How much can gold prices take a hit, by IMF selling.

Jack.
Nora
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 26, 2009 1:13
I will for sure write on amazon. it'll be my pleasure....

your reply is interesting... could you enlighten on a couple of more issues.

1. Why is the Euro-Yen cross looked so closely as proxy for risk taking or risk aversion. What's the instrinsic flow and movement we should interpret and understand.

2. The timing on the sharp selling which you foresee, is that on technicals based on the maturity of moves and countermoves. If sharp selling ensues again, would it also logically mean reversals for Kiwi, Aussie and CAD; and deflation back on the table, with the commodities correcting after a huge move up.

cheers,

Nora
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 25, 2009 18:02
Nora, yes indeed. Except this time Japan is not the only country in hybernation mode. What the forecast you cited misses out is that japan is flush with capital that would not go back abroad (mentioned that in my book). And what's enforcing the bullish yen trend is speculative flows chasing the currency to make a quick buck. We're looking into the final week of the 8-week upcycle in stocks, after which we'll be in a holding patterm until sharp sleling ensues in end of May/June.

Pls feel free to write your review of the book on Amazon. thks.

Ashraf
Nora
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 25, 2009 15:53

Experts Opine, that JPY has to be at 115-125 for Japanese economy to come out of slumber and start functioning again. With JPY going the other way against majors last week, do we think we are back in risk aversion mode and Japan will be back in hibernation.

Love ur book.

thanks,

Nora
Yulie
Jakarta, Indonesia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 22:16
Ashraf your analysis is teaching me to know how the real market.
Your imbue for me. I am very highly appreciate with you.
I am already read your analysis since 5 years ago.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 9:16
Mustaq, these long term deficiencies of the US economy will only start weighing on the USD once the world economy start to show real signs of a recovery. For now, USD weakness remains against JPY.

Ashraf
Mustaq
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 24, 2009 5:58
Ashraf,

Greetings ! In the wake of US bailout (exceeding trillions across multiple sectors), where does USD stand in the long run vis a vis other major currencies. Will USD strength continue to baffle investors worldwide.

thanks,

Mustaq
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 23, 2009 22:16
Casper, mainly risk aversion, which happens when stocks are under pressure money seeks refuge in safe US treasuries (away from emergingmarkets and high yielding currencies). Chap 5 of the book on RIsk Appetite explains that fully.

Ashraf
Casper
Accra, Ghana
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 23, 2009 16:05
Ashraf,

What factors are responsible for the dollar's current strength?
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