Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

The Fed is next week. But here's a look at 4 key upcoming events concerning Trump's imposition of trade tariffs. Full analysis.

Picking the consolidation zone in FX, indices and metals ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement. Full video.

تبدو شمعة “الدوجي” على مؤشر داو جونز واحدة من أبرز علامات الانعكاس في تحليل الشموع اليابانية التحليل الكامل

The quarterly candle on the Dow Jones Industrials Average shows a rare long-legged doji, one of the most striking reversal signs in candlestick analysis. It's especially crucial when it occurs on the quarterly chart. Full analysis.

A third consecutive contraction in US retail sales threatens the enthusiasm about the US economy this year. Ashraf's chart below shows the other two occasions when retail sales fell for for 3 straight months. The yen was the top performer while the euro lagged.

Economists began lowering their Q1 US growth estimates below 2% Wednesday after a soft reading on retail sales. The consensus was for a 0.3% m/m rise but spending was down 0.1%. It was the first time sales had contracted for three straight months since 2012. The details were also weak with the control group up 0.1% compared to +0.4% expected.

A sign of trouble?

That's doubtful. The dip in sales comes after several strong months late last year and numerous data points have been strong, including jobs and sentiment data. The tax cut may also surely provide a tailwind to growth in the months ahead. That sentiment was reflected in the market reaction to the report. The US dollar dipped on the headlines but recovered shortly afterwards.

What's more pressing is the path of inflation. On that front, US PPI was a touch on the hot side Tuesday at 0.2%. Politics is also an endless soap opera but the main focus right now should remain the steel and aluminum targets due in two weeks and how affected countries respond.

Also note that equities and USD/JPY have lately struggled to hold intraday gains. Ten-year Treasury yields are also near the lows of the month. Those might be early-warning signs about trouble in broader markets.

Traders are increasingly concerned about protectionist rhetoric and so far Trump's talk far exceeds the actions but a few more steps towards a trade war could spark a quick rush to the exits.

Finally, now Bitcoin falling below the March lows on Wednesday, partly caused by Google's decision to stop advertizing from ICOs. The February low of 5,920 marked the bottom of the Head & Shoulders formation. Bears looking for a retest.

Turmoil at the White House raises the risks of more interventionist trade and foreign policy. The euro was the top performer Tuesday while the Canadian dollar lagged. The BOJ minutes, the RBA's Kent and Japanese machine orders are up next; along with a US special election. Below is the Premium video, highlighting 11 existing trades ahead of US retail sales.

The departures of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and two low level officials shook up the White House ranks on Tuesday. Tillerson had long been rumored to be leaving but Trump made it official with a tweet and appointed CIA head Mike Pompeo to the position at the same time.

Separate rumors were that national security advisor H.R. McMaster will be next to go be replaced by John Bolton. While the departures aren't a shock, the replacements are major hawks, especially on Iran and North Korea.

On the trade front, a report said Trump was preparing a series of China-directed tariffs to be released in the coming weeks. The news overshadowed the CPI report, which was in-line with estimates but contained a number of soft details that suggest a deceleration in the months ahead.

The S&P 500 had been as high as 2801 but skidded to 2765 at the close. Along with that, USD/JPY fell to 106.56 from 107.25 and the US dollar was broadly weaker.

One big exception was the Canadian dollar. It's increasingly vulnerable to an aggressive White House trade agenda but it was a domestic speech that sank it on Tuesday. The BOC's Poloz said the country will be able to handle more growth without inflation than believed and that the central bank wanted to allow firms to build capacity without choking out the recovery. USD/CAD is back close to the 1.30 level it flirted with last week.

The upcoming calendar features a few notable events starting with the RBA's Kent at 2210 GMT. The Australian dollar fell late on Tuesday but finished close to unchanged. Japan is in focus at 2350 GMT with the minutes of the latest BOJ meeting and January machine orders, which are forecast to rise 5.2% m/m.

However it will be politics continuing to dominate. The Abe government has been swept up in a document forgery scandal and in Pennsylvania voters will put Trump to the test. A House district he won by 20 points in 2016 is up for grabs and could go to a Democrat. There are no immediate implications for markets but it could pit him against Congressmen who are afraid of losing elections in November.

تعرف على اهم الصفقات قبل قرار الفدرالي المنتظر , ما هي اهم مناطق الدعم لمؤشر الدولار ؟ هل ما زالت فرص الشراء على اليورو قائمة , و ما هي الاهداف القادمة لمؤشر الداكس ؟ الفيديو الكامل

The ebb in the US dollar continued Monday as the fallout from non-farm payrolls continued to reverberate. CHF was Tuesday's top performer, while CAD. Australian home loans data highlights the Asia-Pacific session.

فيديو للمشتركين حول ال 11صفقة

The absence of economic data for North American traders kept the focus on political drama in Japan and Brexit developments. Finance Minister Aso is embroiled in a real estate scandal and that's raised questions about his entire government, leading to some modest yen strength. Aso is considering not attending this month's G20 meeting.

Meanwhile, the ebb and flow of Brexit news gave the pound a lift and cable is now testing resistance at the two-week high.

Politics were largely a non-factor and US stock markets were flat. Trump is reportedly interviewing Larry Kudlow to lead his economic team. He is an unabashed free trader and is strongly anti-tariff so that would be a welcome development, albeit a confusing one.

Looking ahead, January Australian home loans data is due at 0030 GMT and expected to dip 0.2% after a 2.3% drop in December.

AUD has been a strong performer since Friday and is trading at a two-week high. The rebound comes after a miserable February but the RBA is slowly growing more optimistic and the solid uptrend since early 2016 is intact. The flipside is that commodities are beginning to struggle. Iron ore has fallen in seven consecutive sessions as uncertainty on steel mounts.

Non-farm payrolls gave a lift to risk assets on Friday another strong jobs number came with moderating wages. Early moves in the new week have been modest. CFTC positioning data generally showed a shift towards neutral. Ahead of Tuesday's release of US CPI, Ashraf posted a chart below, highlighting the course of US CPI, core CPI and the core PCE (Fed's inflation gauge). Which one leads the other? The answer is clear with the help of a few vertical lines. There are currently 11 Premium trades in progress; 7 in the green, 2 even and 2 in the red.

Non-farm payrolls rose 313K compared 205K expected in another sign of solid economic growth in the United States. A month ago, that was accompanied by a rise in wages that contributed to a wave of volatility throughout markets. This time, wages rose 0.1% m/m compared to +0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y versus the 2.8% consensus. More on the jobs/earnings report here.

The reaction was a jump in the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% and AUD/JPY positing its best day since July. It was the classic risk-on response and it hints that growth can continue to improve and the Fed doesn't need to quicken the gradual pace of rate hikes.

The response underscores how dominant the inflation theme is for markets right now. At the same time, geopolitics remains a constant risk as North Korea and the circus in the White House continues.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR +133K vs +138K prior GBP +5K vs +13K prior JPY -87K vs -97K prior CAD +20K vs +22K prior CHF -8K vs -16K prior AUD +3K vs +10K prior NZD +0.5K vs -1K prior

Swiss franc and yen shorts picked a bad time to throw in the towel – they were the two worst performers last week. In general, the shifts were modest.

عادة ما تتبع القصة هذه الطريقة: طالما أن الاقتصاد العالمي ينمو بشكل متزامن ، فإن العجز التجاري في الولايات المتحدة سوف يتحرك نحو 3٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي ، وعجز الميزانية نحو 4٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي ، مما سيسبب المزيد من ...(التحليل الكامل)