Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Jan 20, 2019الاسترليني: بين المقاومة الفنية و المعارضة السياسية
تعرّف على آخرمستجدات البريكست وتأثيرها على تداولات الجنيه الإسترليني في فيديو أشرف العايدي وكيف/لماذا دخل في شراء الزوج للمرة الثالثة. الفيديو الكامل
GBP-DUP Bounce, Euro Stable, Yuan into Equation
The euro regains half of Thursday's 95-pip decline, which was caused by a Draghi's shift of the balance of risks to the downside (more on this below). GBP spiked around midnight on reports that the Democratic Unionist Party will privately agree to support Theresa May's 'Plan B' Brexit deal when she improves the Backstop component ahead of the House of Commons vote. Brexit focus will shift towards a series of votes scheduled for Jan 29, discussed here. Softer than expected IFO data from Germany failed to prevent the euro bounce. A new Premium USD trade was issued yesterday, already in the green. US durable goods and new home sales will not be released due to the ongoing US govt shutdown. Also note a potentially vital development for FX traders on the US-China talks.
Draghi shifted the risks to the downside in a move that undermined the euro but it wasn't a straight-line move. He also hinted at reluctance to use LTROs and TLTROs and that initially sent the euro to 1.1380 before it embarked on a long slide to 1.1290 in part due to reports saying Germany was preparing to sharply downgrade its 2019 forecast to 1.0% from 1.8%. Ashraf tells me Draghi's dovishness was especially thought out ahead of next week's FOMC statement, which will inevitably contain a dovish shift on interest rates from the December meeting. It could well be Draghi was countering any potential EUR bounce from the Fed.
Technicals will play a large part in the next move as EUR/USD approaches the January low of 1.1280, the Dec low of 1.1270 and the late-November low of 1.1267. All those levels could easily be taken out in cascading stops. On the flipside, it could hold and continue to build from that base.
On the flipside of the trade, US Senators may be working on a compromise to reopen the government for three weeks after two votes failed Thursday. A three-week extension on its own does almost nothing for growth, sentiment or the dollar but it would open the door to a real deal.
Yuan Component of US-China Talks
Finally, the US-China trade negotiations are now divided between the camp of Treasury secry Mnuchin and camp of Commerce Secry Ross, whereby the former sounds more optimistic statements about an agreement in contrast to Ross. More importantly for FX traders, Mnuchin is increasingly referring to the rising value of the Chinese yuan as part of the negotiations, which could be intepreted by traders that if Beijing allows further CNY appreciation, then that could count as a key positive step to the talks.Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
---|---|---|---|
New Home Sales | |||
Jan 25 15:00 |
Brexit Ticks Away, Loonie & ECB
Brexit hardliners are growing more nervous amid falling prospects of a no-deal Brexit. The pound is sensing an opening for a deal with cable gaining more than a cent Wednesday and leading the way while the yen lagged. The Premium long in GBPUSD was closed for a 200-pip gain. A new trade in commodities was issued. Australian employment is up next. The ECB conference is on Thursday 13:30 GMT - Since the ECB is not expected to issue new forecasts until the March meeting, euro bulls look out for any pessimism in the ECB statement and Draghi's conference when refering to the balance of economic risks. (more below).
تداول حول فنيات الزخم و الدعم الإتجاهي (فيديو للمشتركين)
January 29th vote
A bill to take a no-deal Brexit off the table gained momentum Wednesday and the pound gained along with it. In addition to the solid earnings and employment figures, the Brexit dynamics remain positive. The Boles-Cooper bill -- aimed delaying Brexit if no new agreement is reached by February 26th -- will be voted on next Tuesday (29th) and is highly likely to be passed.Cable rose to a two-and-a-half month high of 1.3081 on signs the dreaded option could be eliminated. Jacob Rees-Mogg called for Parliament to be prorogued rather than allowing the bill to pass, but Boris Johnson hinted he could support May's deal if it's renegotiated. On that front, the EU continues to brush off the possibility of a hard timeline on the Irish border.
Technically, cable touched slightly above the 200-day moving average. If it can hold, little separates it from the November high of 1.3175.
Elsewhere the Canadian dollar hit a 2-week low after retail sales fell 0.9% in November compared to -0.6% expected. Combined with recent misses in trade and wholesale data, there is a growing risk that next week's GDP report will confirm a deep slowdown in Q4. USDCAD attempts to regain the 55-DMA of 1.3360s. Oil support stands at 50.00
On the flipside, CAD and oil could be propped higher if Venezuela situation deteriorates further. The US and many Latam nations recognized Juan Guiado as the interim leader on Wednesday and talk of a US halt on Venezuelan oil imports continues to do the rounds. The days ahead will be extremely delicate.
Here is our IMT analysis from last month's ECB press coference/revision.
Looking at the calendar, Australian employment data is due at 0030 GMT and is likely to be a market mover. The consensus is for 18.0K jobs with unemployment steady at 5.1%.
Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
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Core Retail Sales (m/m) | |||
-0.6% | -0.4% | -0.2% | Jan 23 13:30 |
Employment Change | |||
17.3K | 37.0K | Jan 24 0:30 |
GBP Maintains Momentum above 1.30
For the 4th straight day, the British pound is the strongest currency of the day, this time amid remarks from Labour's shadow chancellor indicating that the Boles-Cooper amendment/proposal to stop a no-deal Brexit are likely be backed by Labour. More details on the amendment here. Indices recover half of yesterday's losses after reports of cancelling US-China talks were denied. The Premium long in cable is currently over 180 pips in the green. A new Premium trade will be posted before the close of the London's stocks session.
Global indices are rallying back following last night's pullback emerging on the heels of an FT report that the US had cancelled a preparatory trade meeting with Chinese officials. That sent USD/JPY as low as 109.16 before later rebounding to 109.40 when White House advisor Kudlow denied the report. USDJPY is now at
S&P 500 is up 15 pts after having closed down 34 points on Tuesday in a reminder of how sensitive markets will remain to trade troubles. 2600 remains a key support and the index is likely to retest 2680. At the same time, US existing home sales were a reminder of troubles at home after a 6.4% m/m decline in December; much worse than the -1.5% consensus.
Chinese growth also remains a key concern with the IMF lowering its forecast to 6.4%. That's in-line with expectations but a reminder that the pace is headed in the wrong direction.
NZD resumes Wednesday's gains after NZ inflation rose slightly faster than expected and gave the kiwi a 30-pip boost. CPI rose 1.9% y/y in Q4 compared to 1.8% expected. Core measures also rose at a faster pace than Q3. The market is trying to figure out whether the RBNZ will cut rates this year but the implied odds fell to 42% from 50% after the numbers.
Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
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CPI (q/q) | |||
0.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | Jan 22 21:45 |
ارتفاع الذهب الهادئ
بعد سبعة أسابيع من تحليلي على المدونة “المثلثات الذهبية والصينية” التي أشارت إلى مزيد من المكاسب في العملة الصينية والمعدن الأصفر، كان أداء كلا هذين السوقين قويًا. إذًا، هل يمكننا مشاهدة المزيد من المكاسب في المستقبل؟ التحليل الكامل
Theresa May Running the Clock
Could PM Theresa May be running the clock to trigger a Brexit delay? A looming bipartisan amendment from the Conservative Party's Boles and Labour's Cooper to aim at forcing to extend Article 50 in the event that no deal is reached by Feb 26th is likely to be approved. More delay would increase chances of Parliament to push for a 2nd referendum (GBP-positive). And with regards to the backstop (the main sticking point opposed by the DUP), the EU would have to offer May some concession on it (such as agreeing on some sort of finality or a clearer duration to keeping the UK in the Customs Union to facilitate Irelands' border situation). If the EU and May agree on such a deal, both the DUP and the Eurosceptic ERG (European Research Group) will likely approve May's deal--another solid positive for sterling. The Premium video highlighting last night's trade is posted below. On Friday, the Long DOW Premium trade hit its final target of 24630 from the 24080 entry. No Index trades are currently open.
Stronger than expected UK earnings data (3.4% from 3.3% y/y) and a drop in Nov unemployment to 3.9% from 4.0% have also helped the pound. Germany's ZEW current situation index dropped to 27.6 in January from 45.3. US new home sales are due at 10:00 Eastern (15:00 GMT/London). The ECB decision/press conference are due on Thursday.
Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
---|---|---|---|
Existing Home Sales | |||
5.27M | 5.32M | Jan 22 15:00 |
ندوة مساء الثلاثاء مع أوربكس
لماذا يتوقع أن تمنح هيكلة السوق الحالية فرص مباشرة في سوق العملات؟ كيف انتقلت الأسواق من تسعير احتمالات رفع الفائدة إلى احتمال تخفيض الفائدة لنفس السنة ٢.١٩؟ سوف يقوم أشرف العايدي بتحليل كل هذه المواضيع في ضوء الدولار والمؤشرات والمعادن الثمينة في ندوة أوربكس الإلكترونية مساء الثلاثاء. التسجيل من خارج السعودية. التسجيل من السعودية فقط