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Posts by "callum"

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241 Posts Total by "callum":
177 Posts by member
Callum
(Singapore, Singapore)
64 Posts by Anonymous "callum":
 
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Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Aug 9, 2011 3:40
In Thread: EUR
What do we need to get EURUSD back down to 130 levels?
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 8, 2011 13:41
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
Today's response was no different to the last hike, we saw a small blip before resuming to the highs. Unless we see SPX crash, AUDUSD shorts are worst to CARRY due to interest rate differentials.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 16, 2011 9:11
In Thread: EUR
Last Ashraf's IMT "....A EURUSD close above $1.3420 would practically seal the deal for the case in favour of $1.3750."

Let's see how next week looks for EURUSD. I am guessing Fitch downgrade and China hike is no longer relevant. Given lots of Q4 earnings due next week, this maybe just the excuse needed to further prop this back into 1.34 / 1.35 zone till the last of the weak shorts throw in their towel, before the market heads down to close towards Ashraf's target of 1.29/1.27...

Does anyone else have scenarios for this pair?

Also, does anyone look at ATR on Daily for EURUSD? Any resemblances to Sept period in 2010?
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 16, 2011 7:34
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Catnip, which rate / spread are you specifically looking at now, ie, T 2/10yr?

For liquidity China, I am also looking at the SHCOMP:IND and HSI:IND, both looking topsy and unlike SPX, hasn't broken above the November 2010 high. Seems like 61.8% fibo level posing key resistance between 2007/2008 high / low. Could it sustain itself until Chinese New Year??
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 3, 2011 0:56
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
Anyone here trade AUD/SGD (Singapore Dollars) ?

Given the SGD is managed float and also sensitive to Chinese RMB makes it interesting to watch. I closed AUD/SGD fd at 1.31 (around same bid price in 2007) last Friday upon maturity. Friday made interesting candle to watch.

Now Struggling to stay above 1.31 and break 1.32 ... Notice similar 2008 peaks also.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 18:12
In Thread: USD
Given EUR+GBP make up the majority of the USDX, remember late 2009 Ashraf been calling EURUSD 1.32? It may have taken several months for this to play out, but DID happen, despite several squeezes and interventions, and noise from GS, et al.

How is it different this time?
Not much....
Except:
- Risk and EURO zone issue is finding itself prop commodities instead of USD, benefiting commodity based currencies
- QE2, still needs to play out
- Seriously Big news like PIIGS and Dubai not been a play during this Santa rally.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 4:24
In Thread: EUR
Yakata-san, thanks for the heads-up and sanity checks. I am with you on the zerohedge; although, I enjoy reading their tweets / posts because it provides an alternative view.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 28, 2010 12:15
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
AUDUSD "blasting" through high of 1.018 (and closing) be a worry for the shorts .... Else, hang in there ...
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 26, 2010 7:57
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
Lets look at candle stick chart to see if we can tell what could happen to AUDUSD
* China raised interest rates on Oct 19 for the first time in nearly three years.
* The central bank opted to raise banks' reserve requirements on Nov 19 (9:30am EST) ahead of data which showed inflation hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent.


October 19 Candle
* SPX on 19th was a bear candle, but continued to push to be bullish till last week without any major reversal
* AUDUSD 0.9956 - 0.9661 (295 pip) on October 19, without follow-through, bouncing back on the 20th.

November 19
SPX still closed higher than open
AUDUSD around 100 pips lower on 19th with follow-throughout the week

It be interesting to see how the AUDUSD opens Monday :-)
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 24, 2010 8:10
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
"fundamental storys out there that could tank the aud".... I'd love to see some healthy discussion on this. It seems AUD fundamentals, are less dependent from within, rather only vulnerable from external factors, as it is significantly linked to fundamentals of 1) Chinese economy, and specifically China's appetite to import from Aust. 2) Gold. Otherwise, the domestic macro seems to rock solid and continues to grow, with sustained stimulation from the government. The stronger AUD even means more people will be spending xmas holidays overseas, adding to the increased +ve consumer sentiments. Exactly same time last year, AUDUSD was tanking together with EURUSD despite gold staying high. What would tank the AUD? China! China is the only thing significant factor to move the needle. Picking holes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy and its demand for resources in my view extremely hard...
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