Forum Posts by : carlco (Forum Member)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 10:51

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

speculator- heh! im not going to disagree with that, it's a bear market rally, this 166 is shaping up to be proper resistance. But, look at the daily MA100 & 200 and that trend line. As ive said before we are breaking one way or the other.

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 8:50

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

p.s ASHRAF , i know you like your funny comments on CNBC , Bloomberg etc, but i beg you please don't use that 'thriller' quip, it might not go down to well lol ;)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 26, 2009 8:25

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

Ashraf, American's, i read, are really trying hard to save every dime at the moment, even so it must be soul destroying that all of their savings so far add up to 1-2% of the overall debt, Q. Does this mean LESS dollars in the system ?
i keep reading/hearing reports of a tightening of liqudity in the dollar. Q. If so wouldn't this support USD ?
Bernanke easing up on lending. Q. Doesn't that tighten money supply, but also send a message that the estimate of easing needed were all a bit high.
I might be changing my mind on GBPUSD long that 16600 is a key ceiling, Q. Do you think the bond auctions scheduled for the rest of the year will give enough weakness to the USD ? and do FX markets build the future auctions into the current GBPUSD price ?
I was going to say that next week will be a Thriller, but i won't ;)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 25, 2009 11:15

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

ok ashraf, one thing we may agree on is that the range is tightening and ready for a break, i still see cups and handles though ;)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 24, 2009 22:54

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

i don't see any shooting stars, morning stars and doji's, i still say we are pausing for breath before a push higher, support has started to develop at 16200. Just my opinion , comments as always welcome ;)

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 24, 2009 10:21

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

ashraf i don't think we are that weak against the euro not when you consider we nearly hit parity not so many months ago, eurozone doesnt look that clever, especially when you consider the vast amount of commercial loans for the development of eastern europe.

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Jun 15, 2009 21:57

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

ashraf, it's a beautiful double top 3.6.09 and then 11.6.09, 16650 & 16605 respectively , this was last tested way back on 30.10.08 where on a heavy downtrend a rally tested 16670 on its way down to the march lows.
The 38.2% fibonacci i find this amazing how these key resistance/support levels are being bounced off, it's text book stuff. I am going to be bold and say that 15470 is looking, to me atleast. as very very plausible. what do you think ashraf ? 15470 is where im putting 61.8%. after the news today, i get the feeling that maybe the dollar isn't as in bad a shape and maybe the fed won't be raising quite as much QEz'ing as first thought. Low interest rates, banks paying back tarps, GM & Chrysler all done and dusted (almost) commodities looking overdone... i sense its a profit taking pause for breath before a push on equities. Im just rambling, my own thoughts on reasons WHY the chart is double topped and pointing back firmly to the 15470 area.

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

May 22, 2009 13:11

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

hey ashraf , hope you don't mind me posting this link, but it sent alarm bells ringing that lessons from japan, usa, uk, still aren't being learnt, i sometimes wonder what it's going to take. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8062380.stm

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

May 22, 2009 10:23

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

in fact ashraf, im going to make myself look like a donkey (or genius) , looking at the daily GBPUSD the MA100 has a steep curve up and is on a steep intercept course for the MA200 by early June, looking back at where the dollar stood pre-Lehman's GBPUSD@2000(approx) , a retracement of 38.2% from march lows leaves us at GBPUS160 , 50% GBPUSD168, 61.8% 17550, although i think 17550 would be pushing it. Your thought on this possibility would be appreciated.

Carlco

UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

May 22, 2009 9:47

In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?

im not a great technical analyst type of trader its more momentum and sentiment, however i do pay attention to facts between the headline hype of todays media, fact is the bond market have really punished the gov. at the bond auctions, they already smell a rat inflationary wise a bit down the line, this has to mean not just weakness in the dollar for now, but serious pressure in the coming years. Gold and oil has to be a good play medium term here right?, GBPUSD@15834 as of 9.30am gmt , as i say im new to fx, i don't see where any good news for the dollar is coming from, isn' the strength of the dollar only due to everyone running for cover in the dollar a few months ago? ive always been taught that when all the bad news has been built into a price and no more bad news is effecting it, the only way for that holding is up, the UK i believe has all the bad news built in, not so the US they are trying desperately to massage the figures, the bond market though, isn't buying it, right? So here we are, an S&P uk rating downgrade and didn't send the GBPUSD down it sent it up, what does that say for the dollar? considering most market commentary i read and watch are saying equities are overbought we only had a moderate pullback yesterday right? this is good news for equities increasing strength, really bad news for the dollar, in fact any news good or bad is bad for USD great news for shorters though, GBPUSD@160 a real possibility now ashraf ???

Posts by "carlco"