Posts by "cougr"

Given the divergences between S&P and other indeces as well as the vix makes you think that someone is trying very hard to prop this market up.Interesting to see how long it can hold up for.

Ashraf, he's (RBNZ chief)definitely keen on keeping rates down and apparently he's concerned that the swine flu will severely impede economic growth .

Spec ,regarding your question as to the legitimacy of the secular nature of the dollar,in all seriousness one could write a book on the topic ,but given my lack of time and inclination I'll attempt a brief response. Since around 2000 when prices were at around 120 the dollar has slowly but surely drifted lower and lower .The Highs of 2000 have not been surpassed since. Also ,any rally by the dollar since then has not been able to meaningfully remain above it's 200 day moving average.Clearly then the dollar has been in a serious bearmarket for many years and this is suggestive of very powerful dynamics acting against the dollar which are fundamentally driven and not merely based on sentiment. Consequently one may argue that if the dollar was to reverse its clearly defined downwards path fundamental factors would have to be changing and favouring the dollar . Yet all the evidence seems to be painting a picture where this not the case.With the fed creating dollars out of nowhere and causing an incomprehensible amount of supply relative to demand ,with budget deficits in the trillions and likely to worsen every year,with china massively stockpiling commodities and increasing their gold reserves by huge amounts ,with emerging markets markets entering a new era of growth etc etc it is difficult to argue that the dollar is about to embark on a bullish path for a meaningful amount of time. However given the already mentioned proposition that anything is possible I will change my mind if newer evidence appears on the horizon to augment your arguments. I wouldn't be holding my breath though.

Thankyou Ashraf , with my query below I was just trying to clarify a few points that occassionally confound me in regard to market relationships . I am aware that to attempt to stretch things to suit our needs isn't useful and I was not doing this . Cheers and I really appreciate your time and the feedback you provide to everyone on this forum.