EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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the 23.6% ret level of the swing up from 4th June low was hit by SPX on Friday and ES today. These levels also coincided with the potential ABC patterns on daily charts for 100% symmetry, which has held on a retest today. Also confluence with their respective 55 DMA's. Quite a powerful bounce today which might be a heads up for either a completed ABC corrective or perhaps just abc:A with B now in progress.
LOD's were 1425.50 on SPX cash and 1416.50 on ES futures the latter spiking below its 100% sym level to kiss the 23.6% ret and bounce. Also the ES kissed trend support line drawn from the June low. We have multiple confluence of potential support.
Cat, what would I do without your humour, luvit :-) The sad thing is it reflects the truth.
Equities have been advancing on pure fumes for months on end from my perspective. Time and again invalidating my tech analysis so I defer to your better judgement. I can certainly see further daily chart downside in the short term. NYSE breadth has been showing a bullish divergence in the last coupla days but I am finding NYSE internals less than useful in the last 9 months or so. HFT has messed much of my traditional analysis.
Looking at the SPX cash and futures, the futures has bullish divergence on breadth today and has reached key volume support at the 1424 level coinciding with pattern symmetry at 1422 and the 55 dma. The LOD is currently at 1421.25. A break of this level could see 127.2% at 1410.09 and we have daily trend support at 1416.50 which would become potential resistance. Further downside would target 1394.50.
The SPX cash is still shy of pattern symmetry at 1427.04 with the 127.2% ext at 1415.19. The cash closed at 1432.56 right on its potential support level.
Unfortunately Oil has not been correlated with stocks and CAD, very often playing inverse. Stochastics on both CL and Brent are suggesting north but I don't set much store in indicators. Suffice to say that oil is currently my least favourite instrument to trade :-)
Good weekend to u too and of course we are missing your calls on the EU gentle migration north.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mta87MOLhu0&feature=fvwrel
Take a look at the trannies and FDX. I think they look sick with non confirmation on Dow theory. That leads me to looking at weekly crude chart for count to below 77.28, well below. But we must not speculate so far ahead with EW. Lets see what happens next. Your 86 level very pertinent.
One more thing is looking at the fibs from the 24th Feb high to the 28th June low our 78.6% level becomes 70.7% with price hitting on the nail (I missed this, made an error) The 70.7% level plays time and again in crude. That 78.6% level we had was measuring the potential W.3 down when in fact the move down must have been a completed 5 series because this move back up to 100.42 went too high to be a W.4.
How's that for confusion :-)