Posts by "daveo"

George, fundamentals aside I am now alerted on the technicals for CL. Brent which we discussed fell slightly shy of the 100% 111.31 level and then took out the 114.53 pivot high today. So I see brent as high probability for new high above the 23rd August 70.7% fib level.

CL 60 or 120 min chart from the 98.29 high retraced down in a rather messy corrective looking pattern which made 127.2% typical completion of C level at 94.05. Price bottomed at 93.95 and then a substancial bounce back up today. So I am now doubting that the daily 70.7% fib level will be a significant high. I think we shall see that high at 98.29 being taken out in the next few days.

Pls don't rely too heavily :-)

George, if we look at weekly from 6th May 2011 high we can see the move down is choppy but might be doing 5 waves down with the 5th near completed. Yes it might be completed but I prefer more downside to below the 1.1875 low which is also now a magnet. Once completed then I agree we would expect a decent ret up and I see some heavy resistance at c.1.3500/1.3550 ish.

If we now look back to the July 2008 high we have a nightmare pattern but my preferred count would be abc:A finishing at the 1.1875 low, then B move up to the May 2011 high at 1.4938, and now the C down in progress. The projections for completion of C would be at 1.0780 or ext at 0.9646. This count would render your 1.37 retracement unlikely for the near term but sometimes I am wrong so I respect your view !

Thats a difficult call George, could easily test the 88.15 level confluence of trend lines but I prefer another move up and see 93.25 high taken out.

CL is very weak in its normal correlation to SPX. I been expecting a deeper ret up before turning back down to visit 71 level. Daily chart shows tight ranging triangle formation with bulls looking for break above 87 and bears break below 81. Meantime its in no-mans land. Higher risk would be to take the break of the triangle with tight stops.

Cat, if yer serious then try Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph.

I just had a load of ear ache on this subject from a friend of mine who is in the know and based in Zurich. Here is what she said. She has been talking about this german agenda for last 9 months.

"You always get me going on UK. :)

I dont know where you derived your confidence in UK politics. Trust me that once the Olympics are over, the UK will truly become little. The unfortunate part of this whole game is that Germany is just reliving WW2 without anyone noticing that they are slowly but surely finishing off UK economically. I think DC is smart and know this. He is really helpless given the deficits that UK runs (13%? can you imagine what they have got us into? UK was surplus once. What happened in the last 10 years? and where is the prosperity related to all that spending? These are questions which will make you worry about the thieves running this country)They are taking our savings and sending them free to Barclays and other banks who are then passing them over to the Asians and Commodities. On the hand Germany has just become the richest country in the world with over 10trillion EUROS in *free* cash flows. Balance sheet is much bigger now approaching over 20trillion. They will buy Europe which they are anyway doing. But the biggest will come when a debt ridden UK goes begging to Germany. It will happen. I am not a nazi but I know when they are around.

UK is still working its way around the French who are being nicely setup by Merkel. Keep your eyes on Schaueble by the way. He is important. Try studying his family. Do you know there was an assaination attempt on him once? Am just giving you pointers.

Let me also warn you: Germans never forget their losses And this time they seem to have got the strategy dead on for avenging their losses. I think Americans already know this and they are fighting this the only way they can....which is load all the debt onto the Asians. Once the Chinese side with the Germans (matter of time) they are going to dump UK gilts and US treasuries in a flood and there will be swaps in place which will swap EU bond for a UK Gilt or US Gilt. In fact Investment Banks will help those things as they earn fees. Anyway these are things in the future but I just wanted to quip your confidence in the jokers who are running this great country. They are thieves. They have sold us black and white to the banks. Can you imagine the BOE is about to start another round of QE at a time when deficit is the highest in the world? Where has the money from first QE gone? When you find the answers to these questions, you will know what the Germans are upto.

E-bonds should happen pretty soon but not before Draghi might be Kicked out. He is a joker in the pack placed specifically by the Americans (They are smart arent they? What would UK do without the Americans?). Under Draghi, the Germans are increasing the EURO circulation by printing. The SNB has placed a peg which is similar to the 1930s Gold peg. By increasinging the EUROs in circulation, they are making sure that there is so much euros, that ultimately the Asians (HK specifically) will not mind stocking up these coins instead of debt ridden Dollar.

By the way am not German. Am still die hard lover of UK but I know UK could be history pretty soon and I and you cant do jack about it. It is not the politicians who are destroying our country. They are too dump for the Germans to even work with them. It is the BOE who are hand in glove. :) "