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Posts by "frankbrit"
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 13:49
In Thread: JPY
@ said. Sure, but in the 80s E.Europe could hardly be described as leading the charge of the "unacceptable face of captialism" (as Heath called Tiny Rowland). The Cold War was "won" by the West - if there is such a thing as winning.
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 12:38
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Ashraf, I don't know about you but there seems to be a tension building in the market. Appreciate your take on the VIX. What are the chances it breaks the descending trendline at about 25 and heads north?
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 12:26
In Thread: GBP
@djellal you may be right that's the next Fib 1.5728. I'm still hoping for Ashraf's 1.53 and 1.5150 myself ... good thing the rollover isn't too severe. GBP looks good today considering the shocking retail figures. Then again, maybe the market is buying on the basis that the Brits have finally got their old sense of values back and not the shopping and f***ing (there was a play by that name too) that have pervaded the country for too many years ...
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 10:33
In Thread: JPY
Hello once again @ said. Long time. In my view the 1980's was the key decade of transition. The end of the cold war coincided with the opening up of financial markets in the west and easy and fast-moving capital. The frequency of crises has also increased during this time - no coincidence. In historical terms a generation is viewed as 30 years ... Just long enough to forget the lessons of the past.
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FrankBrit
Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 10:10
In Thread: GBP
@ subway90. I see what you're saying and that was in my mind too which is why I am on the fence. A sell-out could take things south. I think we will have our answer quite soon.
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 10:02
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@ chloethebull tanker rates are very low now and this encourages stockpiling as cheap mobile storage by oil traders. Gazillions of tonnes of oil looking for a home and hoping the price doesn't bomb and they have to take it into port. All that supply stuck out at sea and not even in the stockpile statistics ... sound familiar? And what happens to tanker rates when they eventually dump their cargo and are tramping for more biz? I read some months back that distillates are at 30 year record levels in the US also. What this supply/demand story does not factor in is the investment/inflation hedge aspect of the price.
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 9:16
In Thread: JPY
Maybe the U.S. is using Japan's trade/export paranoia + pro-U.S. PM Kan to fight its currency battles v. China AND prop up UST demand (as catnip mentioned). As the Chinese aren't buying as many UST then the U.S. just gets the Japanese to buy them. With friends like that ...
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 9:04
In Thread: JPY
Another thought: China and Japan clearly see each other as export rivals so that if China is being pushed to allow the RNB to strengthen then they will naturally want the Yen to strengthen too in order to ensure they keep their relative price competitiveness with Japan. Face-off.
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 8:57
In Thread: JPY
Everyone accepts (even the Japanese) that intervention will not really work. So if the issue is Chinese buying of JGB then by intervening and making the JPY "better value" this should surely encourage China to buy more? If then the whole intervention thing seems like Japan p***ing into the wind.
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts:
73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 7:57
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
You saw it on "Whatever Happened to Baby Jane". The big boys (played by Bette Davis) have been spoiled for so long by Daddy (the FED and central banks) that they no longer live in the real world. Eisenhower's military-industrial complex has been replaced by a political-financial complex these last three decades.
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