EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Of Gold Extensions مقياس إمتدادات الذهب
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools.
Technical analysis boils down to two things:
identifying trend
identifying support/resistance through the use of price charts and/or timeframes
Markets can only do three things: move up, down, or sideways.
Prices typically move in a zigzag fashion, and as a result, price action has only two states:
Range – when prices zigzag sideways
Trend – prices either zigzag higher (up trend, or bull trend), or prices zigzag lower (down trend, or bear trend)
Understanding Technical Analysis Chart
Why is technical analysis important?
Technical analysis of a market can help you determine not only when and where to enter a market, but much more importantly, when and where to get out.
How can you use technical analysis?
Technical analysis is based on the theory that the markets are chaotic (no one knows for sure what will happen next), but at the same time, price action is not completely random. In other words, mathematical Chaos Theory proves that within a state of chaos there are identifiable patterns that tend to repeat.
This type of chaotic behavior is observed in nature in the form of weather forecasts. For example, most traders will admit that there are no certainties when it comes to predicting exact price movements. As a result, successful trading is not about being right or wrong: it’s all about determining probabilities and taking trades when the odds are in your favor. Part of determining probabilities involves forecasting market direction and when/where to enter into a position, but equally important is determining your risk-to-reward ratio.
Remember, there is no magical combination of technical indicators that will unlock some sort of secret trading strategy. The secret of successful trading is good risk management, discipline, and the ability to control your emotions. Anyone can guess right and win every once in a while, but without risk management it is virtually impossible to remain profitable over time.
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The Chandelier Exit is basically a volatility-based system that identifies outsized price movements. Le Beau defined volatility by using the Average True Range, which was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of RSI and the Average Directional Index. ATR uses the prior close, current high and current low to determine the “True Range” for a given period. After some smoothing, the daily True Range values evolve into the Average True Range for a given period of time.
By setting the Chandelier Exit for longs three ATR values BELOW the period high, the indicator provides a buffer that is three times the volatility. A decline strong enough to break this level warrants a reevaluation of long positions. The opposite applies to short positions. The Chandelier Exit for shorts is set three ATR values ABOVE the period low, which provides a volatility-based buffer. An advance strong enough to exceed this level warrants a reevaluation of short positions.
Chandelier Uptrend and forex signals
Sometimes chartists will see a strong uptrend, but not know where to jump on and when to exit. The Chandelier Exit can be used to define the trend and set a trailing stop-loss. The example below shows Eaton Corp (ETN) breaking out in early November and starting an extended uptrend. The Chandelier Exit defined this uptrend quite well as it followed price action steadily higher. This trailing stop-loss could have been used to control risk for new long positions.
With the Chandelier Exit providing the stop-loss, traders would then need to find an indicator to trigger buy signals within this trend. A sensitive momentum oscillator can be used to capture short-term oversold conditions. The indicator window shows StochRSI, which is the Stochastic Oscillator applied to RSI. Dips below .20 reflect short-term oversold conditions. A subsequent move back above .20 suggests that the uptrend is continuing.
forex signals Chandelier Downtrend
Some stocks are more volatile than others and require a bigger buffer, which means the multiplier should be increased. The Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) example shows the stock in a clear downtrend for most of 2012. A normal Chandelier Exit (22,3.0,short) would have triggered some stops just before the downtrend continued. Notice how HPQ moved above the dashed gray line several times during this downtrend. Chartists should increase the ATR multiplier for more volatile stocks, such as techs. In this example, the red Chandelier line allows for more volatility by using 5 as the multiplier. HPQ held this Chandelier setting until the breakout in mid-December, which signaled the start of an uptrend.
The Chandelier Exit is good for stops, but chartists need to use basic chart analysis or a momentum oscillator to time entries. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) can be used to identify short-term overbought conditions within a downtrend. CCI becomes overbought with a move above +100. A subsequent move back below +100 signals that momentum is turning down again.
Conclusions
The Chandelier Exit is mostly used to set a trailing stop-loss for forex signals during a trend. Trends sometimes extend further than we anticipate and the Chandelier Exit can help traders ride the trend a little longer. Even though it is mostly used for stop-losses, the Chandelier Exit can also be used as a trend tool. A break above the Chandelier Exit (long) forex signals strength, while a break below the Chandelier Exit (short) forex signals weakness. Once a new trend begins, chartists can then use the corresponding Chandelier Exit to help define this trend.
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GOLD
BUY @ 1300
TP @ 1314
SL @ 1293
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TP @ 1.3140
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BUY @ 1299
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SL @ 1292
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gold establish bullish trend from level 1280 and made 2 bullish wave so free forex signals expect bullish trend in near term will continue
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Important Support level today IS 1292
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Developed by Marc Chaikin, Chaikin Money Flow measures the amount of Money Flow Volume over a specific period. Money Flow Volume forms the basis for the Accumulation Distribution Line. Instead of a cumulative total of Money Flow Volume, Chaikin Money Flow simply sums Money Flow Volume for a specific look-back period, typically 20 or 21 days. The resulting indicator fluctuates above/below the zero line just like an oscillator. Chartists weigh the balance of buying or selling pressure with the absolute level of Chaikin Money Flow. Chartists can also look for crosses above or below the zero line to identify changes on money flow.
Chaikin Money Flow Interpretation and forex signals
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is an oscillator that fluctuates between -1 and +1. Rarely, if ever, will the indicator reach these extremes. It would take 20 consecutive closes on the high (low) for 20-day Chaikin Money Flow to reach +1 (-1). Typically, this oscillator fluctuates between -0.50 and +0.50 with zero as the centerline.
Chaikin Money Flow measures buying and selling pressure for a given period of time. A move into positive territory indicates buying pressure, while a move into negative territory indicates selling pressure. Chartists can use the absolute value of Chaikin Money Flow to confirm or question the price action of the underlying. Positive CMF would confirm an uptrend, but negative CMF would call into question the strength behind an uptrend. The reverse holds true for downtrends.
Buying/Selling forex signals
Chaikin Money Flow can be used to define a general buying or selling bias simply with positive or negative values. The indicator oscillates above/below the zero line. Generally, buying pressure is stronger when the indicator is positive and selling pressure is stronger when the indicator is negative.
While this zero line cross seems simple enough, the reality is much choppier. Chaikin Money Flow sometimes only briefly crosses the zero line with a move that turns the indicator barely positive or negative. There is no follow through and this zero line cross ends up becoming a whipsaw (bad signal). Chartists can filter these signals with buffers by setting the bullish threshold a little above zero (+0.05) and the bearish threshold a little below zero (-0.05). These thresholds will not entirely eliminate bad signals, but can help reduce whipsaws and filter out forex signals .
The chart above shows Freeport McMoran (FCX) with 20-day Chaikin Money Flow in the indicator window. There were at least 10 crosses of the zero line between February and December 2010. Adding a small buffer greatly reduced the number of bullish and bearish signals. A move above +0.05 was considered bullish, while a move below -0.05 was considered bearish. There were only three signals. While these signals will come a little later, it may be worth it to reduce whipsaw.
The chart for Harley Davidson (HOG) shows a few good signals and a whipsaw with the May bounce. CMF moved above +0.05 for a few days, but this move failed to hold and the indicator broke back below -0.05 in early June. Whipsaws are going to happen, especially during volatile periods or when the trend flattens. CMF turned bullish in July and stayed bullish the rest of the year. Notice that HOG formed a falling wedge that retraced just over 62% in August, when CMF was still in bull mode. This pullback offered a second chance to partake in the CMF forex signals .
Chaikin Money Flow is not suited for all securities. The chart above shows P.F. Chang (PFCB) with some 18 crosses above +0.05 or below -0.05. Basing CMF signals on these crosses resulted in one whipsaw after another. It is important to analyze the basic price trend and the characteristics of an indicator with a particular security. PFCB exhibits some trend, but price action within this trend is choppy and money flow cannot maintain a positive or negative bias. It would be better to find a different indicator for this stocks.
forex signals Conclusions
Chaikin Money Flow is an oscillator that measures buying and selling forex signals over a set period of time. At its most basic, money flow favors the bulls when CMF is positive and the bears when negative. Chartists looking for quicker money flow shifts can look for bullish and bearish divergences. Be careful though. Selling pressure still has the edge in negative territory, even when there is a bullish divergence. This bullish divergence simply shows less selling pressure. It takes a move into positive territory to indicate actual buying pressure. As a money flow oscillator, CMF can be used in conjunction with pure price oscillators, such as MACD or RSI. As with all indicators, Chaikin Money Flow should not be used as a stand-alone indicator. Marc Chaikin also developed the Accumulation Distribution Line and the Chaikin Oscillator.
Bollinger BandWidth
Bollinger BandWidth is an indicator derived from Bollinger Bands. In his book, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger refers to Bollinger BandWidth as one of two indicators that can be derived from Bollinger Bands. The other indicator is %B.
BandWidth measures the percentage difference between the upper band and the lower band. BandWidth decreases as Bollinger Bands narrow and increases as Bollinger Bands widen. Because Bollinger Bands are based on the standard deviation, falling BandWidth reflects decreasing volatility and rising BandWidth reflects increasing volatility
Defining Narrowness and free forex signals
Narrow BandWidth is relative. BandWidth values should be gauged relative to prior BandWidth values over a period of time. It is important to get a good look-back period to define BandWidth range for a particular ETF, index or stock.
free forex signals : The Squeeze
Bollinger BandWidth is best known for identifying The Squeeze. This occurs when volatility falls to a very low level, as evidenced by the narrowing bands. The upper and lower bands are based on the standard deviation, which is a measure of volatility. The bands narrow as price flattens or moves within a relatively narrow range. The theory is that periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility. Relatively narrow BandWidth (a.k.a. the Squeeze) can foreshadow a significant advance or decline. After a Squeeze, a price surge and subsequent band break signal the start of a new move. A new advance starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. A new decline starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break below the lower band.
The BandWidth indicator can be used to identify the Bollinger Band Squeeze. This free forex signals chartists to prepare for a move, but direction depends on the subsequent band break. A squeeze followed by a break above the upper band is bullish forex signals , while a squeeze followed by a break below the lower band is bearish. Be careful of head-fakes however. Sometimes the first break fails to hold as prices reverse the other way. Strong breaks hold and seldom look back. An upside breakout followed by an immediate pullback should serve as a warning.
Price Channels Conclusions
Price Channels and forex trading signals tells us when a security reaches an any -period high or an xx-period low. 20-day Price Channels mark the 20-day high-low range, 10-week Price Channels mark the 10-week high-low range. The centerline marks the midpoint. Securities that continuously exceed the upper channel line show strength. After all, it takes strong buying pressure to forge higher highs. And give buy forex trading signals Conversely, securities that continuously break the lower channel line show weakness. Strong selling pressure is evident with lower lows and sell forex trading signals . Using Price Channels, chartists can determine the dominant force, buying pressure or selling pressure. As with all indicators, it is important to use other analysis techniques to confirm or refute the Price Channels. Chartists can use chart patterns, indicators or basic chart analysis to complement Price Channels.
Measuring overbought and oversold conditions can be tricky with Price Channels. Securities can become overbought and remain overbought in a strong uptrend forex trading signals. Similarly, securities can become oversold and remain oversold in a strong downtrend. In a strong uptrend, prices can move above the upper channel line and continue above the upper channel line. In fact, the upper channel trend line will rise as price continues above the upper channel. This may seem technically overbought, but it is a sign of buy forex trading signals to remain overbought. Similarly, the Stochastic Oscillator can move above 80, which is technically overbought, and remain overbought for an extended period.
Chartists can use KAMA like any other trend following indicator, such as a moving average. Chartists can look for price crosses, directional changes, and filtered forex trading signals .
First, a cross above or below KAMA indicates directional changes in prices. As with any moving average, a simple crossover system will generate lots of forex trading signals and lots of whipsaws. Chartists can reduce whipsaws by applying a price or time filter to the crossovers. One might require price to hold the cross for a set number of days or require the cross to exceed KAMA by a set percentage.
Second, chartists can use the direction of KAMA to define the overall trend for a security. This may require a parameter adjustment to smooth the indicator further. Chartists can change the middle parameter, which is the fastest EMA constant, to smooth KAMA and look for directional changes. The trend is down as long as KAMA is falling and forging lower lows. The trend is up as long as KAMA is rising and forging higher highs. The Kroger example below shows KAMA(10,5,30) with a steep uptrend from December to March and a less-steep uptrend from May to August.
And finally, chartists can combine signals and techniques. Chartists can use a longer-term KAMA to define the bigger trend and a shorter-term KAMA for forex trading signals . For example, KAMA (10,5,30) could be used as a trend filter and be deemed bullish when rising. Once bullish, chartists could then look for bullish crosses when price moves above KAMA (10,2,30). The example below shows MMM with a rising long-term KAMA and bullish crosses in December, January, and February. Long-term KAMA turned down in April and there were bearish crosses in May, June, and July.
Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Average True Range (ATR) is an indicator that measures volatility. As with most of his indicators, Wilder designed ATR with commodities and daily prices in mind. Commodities are frequently more volatile than stocks. They were are often subject to gaps and limit moves, which occur when a commodity opens up or down its maximum allowed move for the session. A volatility formula based only on the high-low range would fail to capture volatility from gap or limit moves. Wilder created Average True Range to capture this “missing” volatility. It is important to remember that ATR does not provide an indication of price direction, just volatility.
Wilder features ATR in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. This book also includes the Parabolic SAR, RSI and the Directional Movement Concept (ADX). Despite being developed before the computer age, Wilder's indicators have stood the test of time and remain extremely popular.
True Range and forex signals
Wilder started with a concept called True Range (TR), which is defined as the greatest of the following:
Method 1: Current High less the current Low
Method 2: Current High less the previous Close (absolute value)
Method 3: Current Low less the previous Close (absolute value)
Absolute values are used to ensure positive numbers. After all, Wilder was interested in measuring the distance between two points, not the direction. If the current period's high is above the prior period's high and the low is below the prior period's low, then the current period's high-low range will be used as the True Range. This is an outside day that would use Method 1 to calculate the TR. This is pretty straightforward. Methods 2 and 3 are used when there is a gap or an inside day. A gap occurs when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (forex signals a potential gap up or limit move).
Average True Range (ATR) Conclusions and free forex signals
ATR is not a directional indicator, such as MACD or RSI. Instead, ATR is a unique volatility indicator that reflects the degree of interest or disinterest in a move. Strong moves, in either direction, are often accompanied by large ranges, or large True Ranges. This is especially true at the beginning of a move. Uninspiring moves can be accompanied by relatively narrow ranges. As such, ATR can be used to validate the enthusiasm behind a move or breakout. A bullish free forex signals reversal with an increase in ATR would show strong buying pressure and reinforce the forex signals reversal. A bearish support break with an increase in ATR would show strong selling pressure and reinforce the support break.
Parabolic SAR Conclusions and free forex signals
The Parabolic SAR works best with trending securities, which occur roughly 30% of the time according to Wilder's estimates. This means the indicator will be prone to whipsaws over 50% of the time or when a security is not trending. After all, SAR is designed to catch the trend and follow it like a trailing stop. As with most indicators, the forex trading signals quality depends on the settings and the characteristics of the underlying security. The right settings combined with decent trends can produce a great trading system. The wrong settings will result in whipsaws, losses, and frustration. There is no golden rule or forex trading signals one-size-fits-all setting. Each security should be evaluated based on its own characteristics. Parabolic SAR should also be used in conjunction with other indicators and technical analysis techniques. For example, Wilder's Average Directional Index can be used to estimate the strength of the trend before considering forex trading signals .