Posts by "houram"

I absolutely agree with the target of below 80 for the YEN. But I also think the USD will gain against other currencies especially the EURO. In my last message about 6 weeks ago I mentioned 1.30 for Euro and many laughed at me, but we saw 1.30 2 days ago. Now I think we are reaching the top in the next coming weeks and we are going towards 1.10 for the EURO in Q4.

Why should the FED devalue the USD? What about their energy? It will be more expensive. What about their imports? It makes a greater portion of the economy and more businesses will go bankrupt, hence more jobless claims and....
And the rates are already at the bottom, how much room is there for the FED to manouver? The damage was done a few years ago and it is impossible to get out of this mess. Every day in the US there is more lay offs, more foreclosures, more bank defaults, less consumer spending, these are all signs of deflation to me. Inflation requires growth, more lending, less jobless claims..... For those who still think there is a chance of inflation I don't agree, just look at the facts and you will see that we are heading towards deflation. And also think of printing money. How does that happen and how does the printed money gets into your pocket? It is the electronic money that makes the big portion of the dollars. It gets into your account when you borrow money to buy a house, or when your company borrows money for their new project and many more cases. What happens when they default on their payments?

Gold ..... If you ask the guy at the bank counter they tell you to buy gold and that is the most abvious sign for me to sell my gold (which I did with over 30% gain). We may have already seen the top or are very near it.

Yes money has no way to go but into the stock market, into the pockets of the big guys, you can buy their shares and they will buy back their shares much cheaper when you get frustrated holding them. I am shorting this market and thinking of going long USD when the green light goes on.

In my view we could see EUR/USD way below 1.10 towards parity but before that I think we will see some consolidation towards 1.30 and above. Also equities are heading south but not any time soon. This market is so erratic that it will shake out the short positions until most of us turn bullish again. Same goes for Euro.

Hi Ashraf,

Too bad that I couldn't attend your seminar in Vancouver, we were preparing for the Iranian New Year celebration. Anyway, the question is what is keeping gold so high right now. I have been short gold since $1160, $1120 and $1100. The dollar has rallied pretty well, the inflation is slowly turning to deflation and the central banks are not buying gold anymore. In my opinion we should see prices below the 1000 level. Would you agree with that?

Thanks
Houram

VOTE:Under $1000

Money has been flowing into equities, commodities, etc since March and has driven up everything including gold. But it was not moving at the same pace and could pick up in the last few weeks. My view is that equities will go back to those levels in March again and gold will follow the downtrend but since it is the only real money it will not fall as bad and will eventually regain 1000 level and stay above it. Many of you will disagree with me on my bearish views but I see things from a different angle, here are my reasons:
-S&P is trading at very high P/E ratios (I don't even trust the statistics, in real they are much higher)
-The bailout money was mostly used to buy stocks and commodities instead
-The lendings are decreasing compared to the last years
-Unemployment rate is on the rise and as long as it is increasing I am bearish. By the way the real rate is around 16% for the US
-International trades are at the lowest levels

I agree with spec that the Dollar will move up, the maximum time I give the USD to decline is 3-4 weeks when the earnings season is pretty much over. May be it will turn around next week, who knows, but the only way is up since almost everybody is already short dollar.