EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys
;
Here are charts capturing the weakness in asset portfolios, business surveys and consumer sentiment alike. The simultaneous decline in various Fed and non-Fed business surveys (top panel), falling stocks and bond prices sustaining a loss of over $23 trillion (middle panel) and flattening yield curve (bottom panel). The latter illustrates that even bond vigilantes are growing skeptical of Fed's latest policy shift. Don't be taken by the fancy charts and ask instead, “how do I trade these ideas?” and “what is the realistic timeframe?” Let's see.
Click To Enlarge
Good luck with your trading and investments and I am happy that you think this way. There must be someone on the other side of my trade and I am happy that there are many Dollar bears besides you.
You hit it on the nail!!! BRAVO
It is the money flow that dictates the direction at such times.
Lets wait and see!
I see deflationary signs everywhere, in the USA and Europe. All the European nations are struggling to solve their own problems of unemployment, deficits, etc. I do not think much will happen this year but in the next 1-3 years when deflation becomes the main topic and strong economies such as Germany and France will face their biggest problems ever in history, things will look different. The euro zone will fall apart and the Euro will suffer.
As for the Euro, there is always a rebound in a trend, but I see Euro heading to parity by year end.
Too bad that I couldn't attend your seminar in Vancouver, we were preparing for the Iranian New Year celebration. Anyway, the question is what is keeping gold so high right now. I have been short gold since $1160, $1120 and $1100. The dollar has rallied pretty well, the inflation is slowly turning to deflation and the central banks are not buying gold anymore. In my opinion we should see prices below the 1000 level. Would you agree with that?
Thanks
Houram
Great article. What does it take for the Euro to drop even to the lows of 1.25? Isn't Europe with all its problems seeking a weaker Euro to boost their exports? Do Germany and France have to bail out their neighbors sooner or later? What is Spain going to do with their 20% unemployment?
Thanks
Houram
Great analysis, as always. What is your opinion regarding the effects of geopolitics that could heat up in the middle east, would it strengthen the USD? What if crude oil goes up because of the tensions? Will the CAD be strong again?
I hope the tensions will ease, I have many friends there.
Not sure if we will go below 1.38, may be 1.40 if we see a correction of equities in a few weeks. My target for year end is above 1.50