Forum

Posts by "houram"

61 Posts Total by "houram":
55 Posts by member
houram
(Vancouver, Canada)
6 Posts by Anonymous "houram":
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jul 18, 2010 13:26
I absolutely agree with the target of below 80 for the YEN. But I also think the USD will gain against other currencies especially the EURO. In my last message about 6 weeks ago I mentioned 1.30 for Euro and many laughed at me, but we saw 1.30 2 days ago. Now I think we are reaching the top in the next coming weeks and we are going towards 1.10 for the EURO in Q4.

Why should the FED devalue the USD? What about their energy? It will be more expensive. What about their imports? It makes a greater portion of the economy and more businesses will go bankrupt, hence more jobless claims and....
And the rates are already at the bottom, how much room is there for the FED to manouver? The damage was done a few years ago and it is impossible to get out of this mess. Every day in the US there is more lay offs, more foreclosures, more bank defaults, less consumer spending, these are all signs of deflation to me. Inflation requires growth, more lending, less jobless claims..... For those who still think there is a chance of inflation I don't agree, just look at the facts and you will see that we are heading towards deflation. And also think of printing money. How does that happen and how does the printed money gets into your pocket? It is the electronic money that makes the big portion of the dollars. It gets into your account when you borrow money to buy a house, or when your company borrows money for their new project and many more cases. What happens when they default on their payments?

Gold ..... If you ask the guy at the bank counter they tell you to buy gold and that is the most abvious sign for me to sell my gold (which I did with over 30% gain). We may have already seen the top or are very near it.

Yes money has no way to go but into the stock market, into the pockets of the big guys, you can buy their shares and they will buy back their shares much cheaper when you get frustrated holding them. I am shorting this market and thinking of going long USD when the green light goes on.
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Nov 5, 2009 21:09
VOTE:Under $1000

Money has been flowing into equities, commodities, etc since March and has driven up everything including gold. But it was not moving at the same pace and could pick up in the last few weeks. My view is that equities will go back to those levels in March again and gold will follow the downtrend but since it is the only real money it will not fall as bad and will eventually regain 1000 level and stay above it. Many of you will disagree with me on my bearish views but I see things from a different angle, here are my reasons:
-S&P is trading at very high P/E ratios (I don't even trust the statistics, in real they are much higher)
-The bailout money was mostly used to buy stocks and commodities instead
-The lendings are decreasing compared to the last years
-Unemployment rate is on the rise and as long as it is increasing I am bearish. By the way the real rate is around 16% for the US
-International trades are at the lowest levels
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Aug 25, 2009 18:20
Good point Qin, Canadian banks are indeed healthier and have better regulations. How much do you invest in commodities (% of portfolio)? How about the emerging markets? I think we may have similar views of the market.
Talking about Jim Rogers yes he is now defensive but when the time comes he will short the market. Let's see what happens in September? I could imagine another $$$ injection for the stock market by Bernanke for the next wave of crisis.
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Aug 15, 2009 17:49
speculator, the dollar may rally over the next months but it will be limited. also the correlation between the greenback and equities will reverse once there is no confidence in the dollar. the dollar is the world currency but its value is determined by the us economy, which is in bad shape. we have increasing jobless % of almost 10%, companies reducing their investments, people losing their houses .... and currencies look at the relative changes not the absolute changes.
once the next wave of bad news comes in you will see dollar heading south. it will not be the end of the world but i hope the fed will make the right decision.
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 29, 2009 4:38
Hi Rob,

I actually invest in emerging markets and commodities rather than trading them. I recently bought some BRIC ETFs through my bank direct investment account and I won't look at them for a long long time, may be I will add more by Q3 when things will hopefully turn back to normal. Commodities I buy through CMC Markets, mostly gold, silver, agriculture and some metals.
houram
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 15:01
hi ashraf,
how long do you think GBP/USD can hold above the range 1.46 - 1.50 and then continue its decline towards 1.40