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16 Posts Total by "lawrence":
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Lawrence
(Tennessee, United States)
4 Posts by Anonymous "lawrence":
 
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Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Aug 10, 2011 4:12
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Dave, Cat or anyone who knows metals... How can gold go parabolic while silver muddles lower? These metals don't move in lock step, but this divergence seems extreme.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Aug 10, 2011 4:06
In Thread: Silver Lining, Debt Ceiling & Quant Easing
Ashraf, why is silver declining while gold goes parabolic? All the other currency movements over the past few days make sense to me, but this one has me baffled.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 4:01
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Ashraf, why don't the markets perceive NOK as a "safe haven" currency. Both EUR and USD have strengthened against NOK in this crisis, but NOK is better on sovereign debt and interest rate. Ergo, safer haven. And nobody uses EUR to fund carry trade, do they? What am I missing?

Catnip, you are a fundamentals trader. Any thoughts?
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 3:50
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
I trade part time, so I miss most of the intra-day opportunities. So I'm out of the market for now. However, I remember seeing a few articles in the past few months saying "the carry trade is back" as if that was some sort of revelation. The carry trade is temporarily off, but it will return once Japan fears subside. Then interest differentials that have been driving AUD, NZD, and even GBP will be back in play, and CHF, USD, and JPY will be sold off once again. I expect to make nice profits when interest rate fundamentals come back into play. Until then, I'll enjoy reading everyone's posts...

BTW, Ashraf's book does a great job of explaining the carry trade, and how enormous these currency flows are. The lengths of recent candles illustrate that point well. Come to think of it, I should probably re-read those chapters while I wait for the markets to settle down.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 10, 2011 4:07
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Ashraf, I've not taken your advice so far on CADNZD. I hope there's a bit more steam left in this trade as I'm finally gonna take the plunge. Short at .7133.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 2:04
In Thread: EURGBP & Gold vs Aussie Signals
Ashraf,

Has Gold and AUD correlation broken down? Do you still see gold at $1550 in the near future?
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Feb 24, 2011 5:21
In Thread: USD
Rob, could be a triple bottom or a double top. Suspect a triple bottom but waiting to see a real bottom. The spot is far away from 100 and 200 day averages, so the rubber band shouldn't stretch too much further. I've been watching this pair all week, but have no firm convictions yet.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Feb 10, 2011 2:59
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Nor, I don't see it. Please tell me what are you seeing? I'm not much of a chart analyzer.

Perhaps in 2012, but I think that purch price parity has AUD/USD around 80, which is an anchor, and the 55 and 100 day SMAs are flattening out. It also seems that interest rate hikes are on hold for awhile. I trade this pair (and hold for interest) frequently, so I am keen to know what you are seeing.
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Jan 19, 2011 4:35
In Thread: What's Next for Aussie?
Chloe, I read that you don't use stops, but use overbought/oversold as a "natural" stop. I use a similar technique, but hedge with one or more highly correlated pair. I'm always long AUDUSD to pick up the interest, but hedge with USDCHF (very small interest cost) and a few other highly correlated pairs. Given current interest rate differentials and my personal risk tolerance, the annual interest gain approaches 50%. There are times when I get nervous, but it seems to work with no stops. Any experienced traders think I am foolish?
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
14 years ago
Sep 6, 2010 3:10
In Thread: The QE Case for Gold & Silver
Ashraf, I understand that gold prices closely follow the gold holdings (in tonnes) of the GLD exchange traded fund. Supposedly this fund is one of the top five holders of gold in the world, and I assume this fund is driven by retail traders, not the big boys. So, do you see this gold rise being driven by retail traders, or are there larger forces in play? And, why is silver likely to outperform with a slowing world economy weighing on industrial commodities? As always, thanks for your insights.
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