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Posts by "montmorency"

678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
604 Posts by member
montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 22:31
In Thread: USD
Catnip on February 3, 2011 16:09 GMT
said: "for every 10 productive workers there is one lazy stupid official extremely overpaid in Germany
weighting on productivity they always want more and always get more ... this economy has no future"

Oh dear, if that's the case, then there is no hope for us (in GB) at all!
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 15:41
In Thread: USD
@Catnip: So (tying in neatly to another subject we recently discussed) could it apply to the strength of a single currency, which is only one variable? (although that's perhaps a false picture, since it's relative to all the other currencies, rather than just one other, as in a pair)?

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 15:33
In Thread: USD
@DaveO: After I posted the question, I found another posting of yours that referred to it, and in the context realised that it must refer to Elliot Wave, of which I am of course aware (just a bit rusty after a longish break!).

I have to plead guilty to being a lazy trader in that respect, in that I have never studied it properly, and am therefore agnostic as to how useful it is.

There used to be a regular poster on here who posted EW-based trades, but I can't remember her(?) name. I've not noticed her(?) since I've been back.

Thanks for the references.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 14:47
It seems to me that because trading volume* in EUR/USD and GBP/USD is so much higher than that in EUR/GBP, the price of the latter pair is highly dependent on what happens in the former two pairs. It's a bit like a straw blowing in a gusting wind - fairly hard to predict, unless there are strong fundamentals that only affect EUR vs GBP strength and not the relationship of the other two pairs.

This is why I no longer, or almost never, trade EUR/GBP.

I suppose that purely technical short-term moves may be an exception to this.


*[These numbers are in the annual reports for the International Bank of Settlements]
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 14:20
In Thread: USD
@DaveO: I'm probably being dense or missed an earlier thread, but what are E/W traders?

Fundamental Opinions getting in the way of Price Action: Yes, been there, done that, and it's sometimes not a pretty sight. Much more wary these days.

@Chloe: [February 1, 2011 17:33 GMT]: Yes, Ashraf can be a little cryptic sometimes. You have to try to fill in the gaps / read between the lines with your own knowledge, experience and research.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 1:50
In Thread: EUR
@DaveO: Many thanks. Actually I had just googled and found Accustrength (I already knew the name of Tom Yeomans). It's clearly a superior tool (and uses interbank data) to the one I have, which s indeed the one you mention. Yes, probably Tom Yeoman's "Mark I" model!

Thanks for the link.

Cheers,
M.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 0:48
In Thread: USD
@Catnip: re: Reichstag: I thought it had never been proved that the NSDAP started the fire, and that the likely truth was the guy who was blamed actually did it, but he was a bit of a nut, and a loner, and not part of a communist plot, BUT it played right into the NSDAP's hands. AH was nothing if not an opportunist. According to Wikipedia: "The responsibility for the Reichstag fire remains an ongoing topic of debate and research."

As for the CIA on the other hand, I think their fingers have been in quite a few pies, some discovered, some yet to be discovered. Ultimately, it is essential that the USA's man gets in in Egypt (whoever it may turn out to be). They didn't handle the succession (from the Shah) very well in Iran, and we are living with the consequences to this day. Same could happen in Egypt. The law of unintended consequences.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 0:26
In Thread: EUR
@Catnip in reply to your message of: January 29, 2011 09:47 GMT:

Many thanks Catnip. I have recently obtained and briefly tried a free CSM which depends on data from an MT4 broker, which happens to be a market maker. (I don't have access to interbank data :-( ).
I guess this is not the same as having the professional tool, but it's better than nothing.

One possible use of this, as I have read, is to spot a change from risk aversion to risk appetite, for example. Also to draw your attention to changes across the market, which may alert you to "news" that you had not spotted before. Quicker than looking at all the relevant charts. Early days using it for me, so I'll see how it goes.

Thanks again.

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 23:42
In Thread: EUR
On: January 27, 2011 00:28 GMT, Said said:
"eh montmorecy
what indigo meter?"

@Said:
I don't know why you say "indigo meter".
Catnip has referred to a strength meter several times, a currency strength meter obviously. I know there are several around, some free, some chargeable.

Anyway, I have now done some reading around the subject, and I see that it is used in a slightly more subtle way than I had imagined, and of course, in conjunction with other information.

Catnip didn't reply (or I didn't see his reply). Maybe he didn't see my question, or perhaps prefers not to talk about it. Fair enough.

I am glad I have missed the Fundamentals vs. Technicals arguments. I won't be joining them.
I would add though, that there is another factor, namely "Sentiment", which might be regarded as part of Fundamentals, not that it really matters what you call it, but it is important in trading I think. Ashraf is talking about this all the time, although he may not necessarily call it by that name every time.

I hope everyone had a good week, and has a good one next week.

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Jan 26, 2011 23:12
In Thread: EUR
@Catnip: Which strength meter do you use, if you don't mind my asking?


I know of one free one (for MT4, not sure if there are versions for other S/W), but I am somewhat sceptical of the whole premise, to be honest.


I know that the principle is to buy strength and sell weakness, but this also seems to depend on the principle that the future will behave pretty much like the past. I suppose if you also add in fundamental reasons, it's ok, but I still have my doubts.