Posts by "qiman"

An interesting article about Germany's economic improvement:

Defying Others, Germany Finds Economic Success

"Germanys partners have cajoled, begged and demanded that the government in Berlin encourage more robust consumer spending, to combat imbalances among the countries that use the euro currency. But Ms. Wiblishauser said she was saving all she could, worried that the public pension system she was paying into might not be there for her when she retired.

And she found the prospect of more bailouts for heavily indebted European governments, like this years contentious rescue package for Greece, deeply distasteful. Like many Germans, Ms. Wiblishauser said she was having a hard time seeing the benefits the country received from being a member of the European Union.

I would really like it if we were autarkic, like the Swiss, she said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/14/world/europe/14germany.html?_r=1&hp

Hedge funds boosted their holdings of crude oil futures and options last week to the highest level in 13 weeks. Net-long positions on crude oil rose by 25,965 contracts to 135,833 in the week ended Aug. 3, according to the Commitments of Traders report Aug. 6 by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

There was another increase in non-commercial long positions, so money continues to flow into the oil markets and a lot of the commodity markets, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. That tends to keep prices above what fundamental reality dictates.

Crude oils monthlong rally may propel prices to a 20-month intraday high of $88.17 a barrel by the end of September, according to technical analysis by Blake Robben, a strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.

The October contract, which becomes the front month Aug. 23, has been trading in an uptrend, a pattern of higher peaks and higher valleys, since touching a low of $72.15 on July 6, Robben said. A line drawn from the July 6 low to the July 28 low of $76.33 shows support at $78.35 as of today, Robben said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-09/oil-rises-first-time-in-four-days-as-equities-fuel-optimism-over-recovery.html

VOTE:75-83

This is a classic example of the multi-vector nature of the interconnected markets! The weaker dollar will supposedly help demand, and yet the CL often is pulled strongly by the dow and s and p as of late, and they could be all over the map, with Sept statistically the worse month for the S and P and August in second place. Oil also is quite affected by the Euro at times. And then we head into the peak of the hurricane season. So many vectors pushing and pulling on CL, and yet I could see it end September close to where it is now, lets say 81. But in the meantime I plan on riding usable waves up or down intraday!

An important article from the Wall Street Journal regarding the demand for the Euro:

Gangsters, drug dealers and money launderers appear to be playing their part in helping shore up the financial stability of the euro zone.

That's thanks to their demand, according to European authorities, for high-denomination euro bank notes, in particular the 200 and 500 bills. The European Central Bank issues these notes for a hefty profit that is welcome at a time when its response to the financial crisis has called its financial strength into question.

The high-value bills are increasingly "making the euro the currency of choice for underground and black economies, and for all those who value anonymity in their financial transactions and investments," wrote Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, in a recent research report. The business of issuing euro notes, produced at almost zero cost, is "wildly profitable" for the ECB, Mr. Buiter wrote.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704532204575397543634034112.html

"and dont try to be a hero and draw grand conclusions at every twist and trun of the market."

Very true words, those! The markets are so complex, sometimes reasons and directions are fairly obvious, but there is also randomness.