EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
How are you doing? Just read your recent comments........I didn't check this blog for a week, because I was preparing for some traveling.......anyway........I hope all of you will be doing fine.....
As I said before, USD/CAD 1.03 by the end of this year.......you may always have chance to long the pare on its dips every months because the trend is downside.........be careful and good luck!
I still hold all my short positions on USD/NOK and added 2 more short positions on the pare last week.......now I have 10 times leveraged.........if it pull back, I will add more short on it........my target is 5 before next summer.........
once again....good luck!!
Sorry man....I really can't give you short term on Yen.....I have been avoiding to trade on Yen for 2 months......I know Yen will rise into next year.......but I am the one to wait for the chance to short Yen next year, when some central banks start rise their interest rates.......
If you check my comment record, you may know that I only short USD.......
I hope you will be fine.......
I don't expect USD will decline so aggressively like early by this year......but it will go down very smoothly........if FED doesn't do anything about USD before next summer.......I think it is possible USD will collapse in next Autumn..........because all the major central banks will tight monetary policy before FED.........
FED extend time to QE, because they want to keep low interest rate and money supply into next year........but some of the central banks have already start tightening now.....they will rise interest rate before FED.......
Shangahi index goes down, because China want to tight now....they just need to make call to the banks, tell them don't lend out any money to anyone..............I think it is very good for China economy in long term..........Fed can't do that, because they have elections......Obama want to be elected again.......they will not stop printing money..........
Obama said that world economy need to re-balance in G20......in other words, he said that I want to debase USD and boost export......I think he will success to debase USD, but not boost export......20 years ago USD/YEN was 400......now it is 90........Japanese still can sell their products to USA......boosting export is not equal to debase currencies.......never works........
if you want to trade on Yen....check this.....this bank are very good on Yen trade......
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/FX_-_Majors.htm
Yen maybe will be the biggest winner to against USD.......if you want to trade on Yen......short USD/YEN when it rally.........USD/YEN will back to 80 or even 70........
EUR/USD will go to above 1.55 before next summer......
So in long term, you may have higher potential lose money then make money........
Japanese has tolerant Yen strength......the fare value for USD/YEN is at 95........it always move up or down by 25%......so it is 70 to 110......I think it will go down.......
The guy I mentioned before, he has worked in the biggest forex exchange bank in Japan for 17 years as chief trader.........I think I have got 99% sure on that......
I think NOK has potential to become safe haven currency....like Yen and Swiss franc.....
Japanese are always heavily investing in oversea, so when the crisis happens, they will repatriate their money back into Yen as we call it as safe haven currency...............Norwegian companies also invest in oversea more and more then into their own country....... it maybe will take a few more years to be the safe haven if they can keep their trading balance always huge surplus........
Risk aversion won't give USD so much power rally. Back to last year, we had shortage on USD and shorting positions on USD had been adding for more then 2 or 3 years before crisis......the crisis forced all the traders to liquidate all their positions, so USD had a huge rally as we all know.......
But now, we don't have shortage on USD, because FED has been printing so much money and central banks have had some swap currencies pogroms.....On my view, USD is still at oversupply position......so even risk aversion happens in stock market, it will be limited for USD rally.......
About EURO, the European companies have been investing in oversea, particular in emerging countries more then 2 or 3 times amount of money, if you compare to American companies over the last 2 or 3 years........so American companies have less power to influence to the FX market when they want to repatriate their assets back into USD......but European companies and Japanese companies have more power about it now........by the end of year, both European companies and American companies will do the repatriation at the same time, you will see Euro will rise more then USD.........
I don't know that if you still shorting Yen or not.......I know a Japanese trader, yesterday he told me that most of the Japanese institutional traders are expecting USD/YEN go back to 80 or even more downside by the end of this year.....This guy is very good on FX......he recently was elected to be congressman in Japan, since then he reluctant to talk about FX...........and it was the recent comment about Yen........
Be careful of the Yen.....good luck!!