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70 Posts Total by "raulin":
64 Posts by member
raulin
(london, United Kingdom)
6 Posts by Anonymous "raulin":
 
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raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 19:15
In Thread: Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup
sorry for the entry above was supposed to be on favourite pair to trade...humble apologies
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 18:33
In Thread: CADJPY's Next Target
Ashraf it seems to me that CAD/jpy having fallen out of its daily uptrend channel since JAN on the 22 June is looking very suspect and this is very significant (this pair channels very nicely as do some of the other yen pairs (not gbp/jpy!) . I have been looking at some other correlations -usd/cad , very hard to call looking bearish for usd/cad below 1.500 and choppy and I don't particurly see persistent JPY strength unless S and Poors stays below 900 but do know that July is traditionally a poor month for both CAD and JPY but am keen to keep a long term CAD/JPY short. What are your views?
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 18:25
In Thread: Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup
gbp/jpy for its daily ATR always following usd/jpy as that's the boss but too slow moving.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 11:55
In Thread: US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
There wil be no real growth until BRICS import and balance world trade. There is huge oversupply problem and the food commodities are the only sustainable growth area in a depressionary era. What use are your copper and your oil if there is no demand?

raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 18:19
In Thread: Exiting the Exit Strategy
Ashraf. There is no doubt that there will be a diversification out of dollar in longer term what is not clear is where we go short to medium term. So much depends on 10 yr treasuries yields which if continue to rise (yes of course I expect US govt to step in and buy treasuries ) BUT corporate earnings that surprise on the downside (i think better earnings are priced in ) could be very negative for stocks and consequently negative for your gbp/usd your aus/usd and nzd/usd and your euro/USD and euro/jpy and if we break below 880 we go down a long way but this picture could take some weeks to play out so I think it is risky at the moment to be in this choppy market until we break 880 or 950 on Standard and Poors. On Fri I agree there was dollar selling despite stock market falling and there was USD buying on better US economic news (more classical econmic theory earlier in the week) but this to me is reflective of uncertainty and VIX needs to be watched as it is rising, so it is unwise to make predictions. We both know that stock market gains have driven this gbp, euro and aussie rally since March.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 17:36
In Thread: Exiting the Exit Strategy
Ashraf, forward looking as you know can mean 5,10 or even 20 yrs what is not clear is what is going to happen in the next year or 2. If you sell the dollar you have to buy something else ..I don't think anyone would argue that Germany is driving force of eurozone and their economy is looking every bit as sickly as Japan's and their fall in GDP is worse than US. Is this simplistic? So where is their recovery going to come from when they have no domestic demand? It makes me laugh when people justify GBP/USD rise on UK improving sentiment indicators with manipulated retail sales and rising unemployment . Pound rose because it was oversold and worse performiong currency of 2008. The simplisting assumption is decoupling of the world economies.
raulin
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 14:56
In Thread: Exiting the Exit Strategy
Hi Ashraf . What we are at is clearly an inflection point with higher yields on 10 yr Treasuries curbing stock market gains. It is likely that US govt will above else attempt to curb these yields as they reflect higher long term mortgage rates and a big brake on a very delicate housing "recovery". This will nominally have a very dollar negative effect but when you look at what you buy with your dollars euro and gbp , aud, nzd.These are in even worse condition than US (UK and eurozone ) where at least the US is the world's reserve currency and everywhere else is also indulging in quantitative easing so if the US fails, they do too as well. Underpinning the recovery is a bottom in house prices which has NOT been reached and likely to be derailed by higher long term interest rates. China's growth is all export based, they have been stockpiling commodities with no increase in domestic demand ..so if they have no one to sell to they are not going to do too well either and that disposes of aussie and NZD.It's really interesting some of my friends are now looking to buy in good areas of London as if they think now is bargain of the century but it ain't no bargain if we head back to 1997 prices like Japan did!
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 14:12
In Thread: Where will EURUSD close by end of June?
Ahraf . Did you pick up on the IMF comment about "substantially increase the IMF capacity for concessional lending through the sale of gold or other means, consistent with the new income model, and we encourage the Fund to explore the scope for increased concessionality to low-income countries". IMF has a lot of gold and has to generate income for funding.Also it has been commented by on that they have plans to sell some of their reserves in the not too distant future, so why should you talk down the price of something you are trying to sell , though maybe the quantities are too small to move the markets in a big way? Geithner is in China now maybe he is offfering them the cheap gold ..cheap that is of you think gold goes to $1600/oz! It is hard to believe US govt favours weaker dollar with all that that they owe in dollars.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 13:56
In Thread: Where will EURUSD close by end of June?
VOTE:$1.37-1.45

Difficult to see it topping 1.45 short term, might get down to monthly S1 at 1.3490 but would pick up lot of buyers there.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
May 1, 2009 17:55
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
VOTE:Below $1.41

Have people not noticed we have no direction in any trading currency except maybe for flavour du jour AUD and CAD ? So you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Dollar is dead when inflation comes and you can't flog treasuries ..but you actually believe in the euro with zero leadership no political union and moribund econmoies like Ireland and Spain?
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